diff --git a/household_impacts.ipynb b/household_impacts.ipynb
deleted file mode 100644
index e444f0a..0000000
--- a/household_impacts.ipynb
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,410 +0,0 @@
-{
- "cells": [
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 1,
- "id": "197dffe4",
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "from IPython.display import Markdown\n",
- "import plotly.express as px\n",
- "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
- "import pandas as pd\n",
- "\n",
- "\n",
- "# Define PolicyEngine's color palette\n",
- "BLACK = \"#000000\"\n",
- "BLUE_LIGHT = \"#D8E6F3\"\n",
- "BLUE_PRIMARY = \"#2C6496\"\n",
- "DARK_BLUE_HOVER = \"#1d3e5e\"\n",
- "DARK_GRAY = \"#616161\"\n",
- "DARKEST_BLUE = \"#0C1A27\"\n",
- "GRAY = \"#808080\"\n",
- "LIGHT_GRAY = \"#F2F2F2\"\n",
- "MEDIUM_DARK_GRAY = \"#D2D2D2\"\n",
- "MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#BDBDBD\"\n",
- "WHITE = \"#FFFFFF\""
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 2,
- "id": "7ca8df35",
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "c:\\Users\\dtsax\\envs\\pe\\Lib\\site-packages\\tqdm\\auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
- " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
- ]
- },
- {
- "name": "stdout",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "Employment income range: 401 points from $0 to $200,000 in $500 increments\n",
- "Change in net income (first 10 values): [0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.]\n",
- "Change in net income (last 10 values): [0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.]\n"
- ]
- }
- ],
- "source": [
- "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
- "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
- "\n",
- "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
- " \"2024-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.85\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT\": {\n",
- " \"2024-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE\": {\n",
- " \"2024-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE\": {\n",
- " \"2024-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
- " \"2024-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
- " \"2024-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " }\n",
- "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
- "\n",
- "\n",
- "situation = {\n",
- " \"people\": {\n",
- " \"you\": {\n",
- " \"age\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": 70\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"social_security_retirement\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": 30000\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"your partner\": {\n",
- " \"age\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": 70\n",
- " }\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"families\": {\n",
- " \"your family\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"marital_units\": {\n",
- " \"your marital unit\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"tax_units\": {\n",
- " \"your tax unit\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"spm_units\": {\n",
- " \"your household\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"households\": {\n",
- " \"your household\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ],\n",
- " \"state_name\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": \"FL\"\n",
- " }\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"axes\": [\n",
- " [\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"name\": \"employment_income\",\n",
- " \"count\": 401,\n",
- " \"min\": 0,\n",
- " \"max\": 200000\n",
- " }\n",
- " ]\n",
- " ]\n",
- "}\n",
- "\n",
- "# Calculate reform net income\n",
- "simulation_reform = Simulation(\n",
- " reform=reform,\n",
- " situation=situation,\n",
- ")\n",
- "reform_net_income = simulation_reform.calculate(\"household_net_income\", 2026)\n",
- "\n",
- "# Calculate baseline net income\n",
- "simulation_baseline = Simulation(\n",
- " situation=situation,\n",
- ")\n",
- "baseline_net_income = simulation_baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", 2026)\n",
- "\n",
- "# Calculate change in net income\n",
- "change_in_net_income = reform_net_income - baseline_net_income\n",
- "\n",
- "print(f\"Employment income range: 401 points from $0 to $200,000 in $500 increments\")\n",
- "print(f\"Change in net income (first 10 values): {change_in_net_income[:10]}\")\n",
- "print(f\"Change in net income (last 10 values): {change_in_net_income[-10:]}\")"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 6,
- "id": "c227b57c",
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Create employment income array with $500 increments (401 points from $0 to $200,000)\n",
- "employment_income = [i * 500 for i in range(401)]\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create DataFrame with the actual reform output\n",
- "df = pd.DataFrame(\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Change in Net Income\": change_in_net_income,\n",
- " }\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create the line graph\n",
- "fig = px.line(\n",
- " df,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
- " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
- " title=\"Change in Net Income for an Elderly Married Couple with
$30,000 in Social Security Benefits (Reform Impact)\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.25,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Try multiple display methods\n",
- "try:\n",
- " fig.show()\n",
- "except:\n",
- " try:\n",
- " import plotly.io as pio\n",
- " pio.show(fig, renderer=\"browser\")\n",
- " except:\n",
- " # Fallback to basic display\n",
- " display(fig)"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 7,
- "id": "o8lq4ut1p5",
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Create separate graph showing both reform and baseline net income\n",
- "employment_income = [i * 500 for i in range(401)]\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create DataFrame with both reform and baseline data\n",
- "df_comparison = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Reform Net Income\": reform_net_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline Net Income\": baseline_net_income,\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "# Melt the dataframe for plotting multiple lines\n",
- "df_melted = df_comparison.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " value_vars=[\"Reform Net Income\", \"Baseline Net Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create the line graph with both scenarios\n",
- "fig_comparison = px.line(\n",
- " df_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\n",
- " \"Reform Net Income\": BLUE_PRIMARY,\n",
- " \"Baseline Net Income\": DARK_GRAY\n",
- " },\n",
- " title=\"Net Income Comparison: Reform vs Baseline for Elderly Married Couple
with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(\n",
- " yanchor=\"top\",\n",
- " y=0.99,\n",
- " xanchor=\"left\",\n",
- " x=0.01\n",
- " ),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.25,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Try multiple display methods\n",
- "try:\n",
- " fig_comparison.show()\n",
- "except:\n",
- " try:\n",
- " import plotly.io as pio\n",
- " pio.show(fig_comparison, renderer=\"browser\")\n",
- " except:\n",
- " # Fallback to basic display\n",
- " display(fig_comparison)"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 8,
- "id": "bxjdpd8leq",
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Create focused graph for $20,000-$50,000 employment income range\n",
- "employment_income = [i * 500 for i in range(401)]\n",
- "\n",
- "# Filter data for the specified range ($20,000 to $50,000)\n",
- "start_index = 40 # $20,000 / $500 = 40\n",
- "end_index = 101 # $50,000 / $500 = 100, +1 for inclusive\n",
- "\n",
- "filtered_employment_income = employment_income[start_index:end_index]\n",
- "filtered_reform_net_income = reform_net_income[start_index:end_index]\n",
- "filtered_baseline_net_income = baseline_net_income[start_index:end_index]\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create DataFrame with filtered data\n",
- "df_focused = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": filtered_employment_income,\n",
- " \"Reform Net Income\": filtered_reform_net_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline Net Income\": filtered_baseline_net_income,\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "# Melt the dataframe for plotting multiple lines\n",
- "df_focused_melted = df_focused.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " value_vars=[\"Reform Net Income\", \"Baseline Net Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create the focused line graph\n",
- "fig_focused = px.line(\n",
- " df_focused_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\n",
- " \"Reform Net Income\": BLUE_PRIMARY,\n",
- " \"Baseline Net Income\": DARK_GRAY\n",
- " },\n",
- " title=\"Net Income Comparison: Reform vs Baseline
Employment Income Range: $20,000 - $50,000\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(\n",
- " yanchor=\"top\",\n",
- " y=0.99,\n",
- " xanchor=\"left\",\n",
- " x=0.01\n",
- " ),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.25,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Try multiple display methods\n",
- "try:\n",
- " fig_focused.show()\n",
- "except:\n",
- " try:\n",
- " import plotly.io as pio\n",
- " pio.show(fig_focused, renderer=\"browser\")\n",
- " except:\n",
- " # Fallback to basic display\n",
- " display(fig_focused)"
- ]
- }
- ],
- "metadata": {
- "kernelspec": {
- "display_name": "pe",
- "language": "python",
- "name": "python3"
- },
- "language_info": {
- "codemirror_mode": {
- "name": "ipython",
- "version": 3
- },
- "file_extension": ".py",
- "mimetype": "text/x-python",
- "name": "python",
- "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
- "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
- "version": "3.12.10"
- }
- },
- "nbformat": 4,
- "nbformat_minor": 5
-}
diff --git a/juypterbook/_config.yml b/juypterbook/_config.yml
index 8e4b636..af6b1b6 100644
--- a/juypterbook/_config.yml
+++ b/juypterbook/_config.yml
@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
# Book settings
title: "Social Security Taxation Reform: Policy Analysis and Impact Assessment"
author: PolicyEngine
-logo: logo.png
+logo: policyengine.png
copyright: "2024"
# Force re-execution of notebooks on each build
execute:
- execute_notebooks: cache
- timeout: 300
+ execute_notebooks: force
+ timeout: 600
allow_errors: false
# Define the left-hand sidebar links
@@ -17,14 +17,47 @@ repository:
# HTML-specific settings
html:
- favicon: favicon.ico
+ favicon: policyengine.png
use_edit_page_button: false
use_repository_button: true
use_issues_button: false
home_page_in_navbar: false
navbar_number_sections: false
announcement: ""
-
+ extra_css:
+ - _static/custom.css
+ extra_extensions:
+ - sphinx_external_toc_strict
+
+# Parse and render settings
+parse:
+ myst_enable_extensions:
+ - colon_fence
+ - deflist
+ - html_admonition
+ - html_image
+ - linkify
+ - replacements
+ - smartquotes
+ - substitution
+ - tasklist
+
+# MyST-NB settings for hiding code cells
+mystnb:
+ execution_mode: off
+ execution_timeout: 600
+ execution_allow_errors: false
+ execution_excludepatterns: ["methodology.ipynb"]
+ remove_code_source: false
+ remove_code_outputs: false
+ code_prompt_show: "Show implementation details"
+ code_prompt_hide: "Hide implementation details"
+ render_plugin: "default"
+ render_markdown_format: "commonmark"
+ render_image_options:
+ width: "100%"
+ render_figure_options: {}
+
# LaTeX settings
latex:
latex_engine: pdflatex
@@ -36,8 +69,18 @@ bibtex_bibfiles:
# Sphinx extensions
sphinx:
+ extra_extensions:
+ - sphinxcontrib.bibtex
config:
nb_execution_mode: "off"
+ nb_output_stderr: "show"
+ nb_render_image_options:
+ width: "100%"
+ html_js_files:
+ - https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/require.js/2.3.4/require.min.js
+ suppress_warnings: ["mystnb.unknown_mime_type"]
+ bibtex_reference_style: author_year
+ bibtex_default_style: plain
html_theme_options:
repository_url: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/crfb-tob-impacts
use_repository_button: true
diff --git a/juypterbook/_static/custom.css b/juypterbook/_static/custom.css
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..da50535
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/_static/custom.css
@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+/* Enable code cell toggle functionality */
+.toggle {
+ cursor: pointer;
+ display: block;
+ margin-bottom: 1rem;
+}
+
+.toggle .fa-chevron-down,
+.toggle .fa-chevron-right {
+ padding-right: 0.25rem;
+}
+
+/* Hide code cells by default and add toggle */
+div.cell_input {
+ display: none;
+}
+
+details.hide-above > summary {
+ display: list-item;
+}
+
+details.hide-above[open] > summary ~ * {
+ animation: sweep .2s ease-in-out;
+}
+
+@keyframes sweep {
+ 0% {opacity: 0; transform: translateX(-10px)}
+ 100% {opacity: 1; transform: translateX(0)}
+}
+
+/* PolicyEngine blue hover colors for tables */
+table tr:hover {
+ background-color: #2C6496 !important;
+ color: white !important;
+}
+
+table tr:hover td {
+ background-color: #2C6496 !important;
+ color: white !important;
+}
+
+/* CSV download button styling */
+.csv-download-btn {
+ background-color: #2C6496;
+ color: white;
+ border: none;
+ padding: 8px 16px;
+ border-radius: 4px;
+ cursor: pointer;
+ font-size: 14px;
+ margin: 10px 0;
+ display: inline-block;
+ text-decoration: none;
+}
+
+.csv-download-btn:hover {
+ background-color: #1f4a73;
+ color: white;
+ text-decoration: none;
+}
+
+/* Hide code blocks with custom show/hide functionality */
+.hide-input {
+ display: none;
+}
+
+/* Custom toggle button for reform code */
+.reform-code-toggle {
+ background-color: #2C6496;
+ color: white;
+ border: none;
+ padding: 8px 16px;
+ border-radius: 4px;
+ cursor: pointer;
+ font-size: 14px;
+ margin: 10px 0;
+ display: block;
+}
+
+.reform-code-toggle:hover {
+ background-color: #1f4a73;
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/_static/household_impacts_summary.csv b/juypterbook/_static/household_impacts_summary.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..81f1a07
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/_static/household_impacts_summary.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+Employment Income,Opt 1: Full Repeal,Opt 2: Tax 85% of All SS,Opt 3: Tax 85% + Senior Deduction,Opt 4: Tax 85% + $500 Credit,Opt 5: Roth-Style Swap,Opt 6: Phased Roth Swap
+$0,$0,$0,$0,$0,$0,$0
+"$25,000",$0,$-260,$-260,$0,$0,$0
+"$50,000","$2,427",$-198,$-198,$302,"$2,044",$-60
+"$75,000","$3,060",$0,$0,$500,"$2,372",$-90
+"$100,000","$3,060",$0,$0,$500,"$2,142",$-119
+"$150,000","$5,947",$0,$0,$500,"$3,271",$-348
+"$200,000","$5,947",$0,$0,$500,"$2,581",$-438
diff --git a/juypterbook/_static/policy_impacts_summary.csv b/juypterbook/_static/policy_impacts_summary.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..18d10d6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/_static/policy_impacts_summary.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+Policy Option,10-Year Impact (Billions)
+Option 1: Full Repeal,-1149.1
+Option 2: 85% Taxation,219.3
+Option 3: 85% with Senior Deduction,27.8
+Option 4: Tax Credit ($500),86.8
+Option 5: Roth-Style Swap,756.2
+Option 6: Phased Roth-Style,1123.5
+Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction,64.2
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/_static/policy_impacts_yearly.csv b/juypterbook/_static/policy_impacts_yearly.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..920c963
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/_static/policy_impacts_yearly.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+Option,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,10-Year Total
+Option 1,-86.3,-91.8,-96.9,-105.9,-112.7,-118.4,-124.9,-131.0,-137.5,-144.3,-1149.1
+Option 2,18.3,18.3,18.1,23.8,24.0,23.9,23.8,23.5,23.1,22.8,219.3
+Option 3,18.3,18.3,18.1,-3.5,-3.5,-3.6,-3.8,-4.0,-4.2,-4.4,27.8
+Option 4,24.4,24.6,24.6,2.9,2.8,2.4,2.0,1.5,1.0,0.6,86.8
+Option 5,58.2,61.4,65.6,67.6,73.5,77.8,82.4,86.9,90.1,93.9,756.2
+Option 6,18.7,39.9,63.7,83.3,106.7,130.7,154.9,174.9,174.8,173.9,1123.5
+Option 7,21.0,21.5,21.8,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,64.2
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/_toc.yml b/juypterbook/_toc.yml
index aaa331e..019480d 100644
--- a/juypterbook/_toc.yml
+++ b/juypterbook/_toc.yml
@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
format: jb-book
root: intro
chapters:
-- file: policy_options
-- file: prior_research
+- file: policy-options
+- file: prior-research
- file: methodology
-- file: policy_impacts
-- file: household_impacts
-- file: comparison
\ No newline at end of file
+- file: policy-impacts
+- file: household-impacts
+- file: bibliography
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/bibliography.md b/juypterbook/bibliography.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1adaebd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/bibliography.md
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+# References
+
+```{bibliography}
+```
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/comparison.md b/juypterbook/comparison.md
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--- a/juypterbook/comparison.md
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,218 +0,0 @@
-# Comparison to Other Analysis
-
-This chapter compares our PolicyEngine estimates to existing analysis from authoritative sources, including the Congressional Budget Office, Joint Committee on Taxation, and other research institutions. Understanding these comparisons helps validate our methodology and contextualize our findings within the broader analytical landscape.
-
-## Baseline Revenue Comparisons
-
-### Current Law Benefit Taxation Revenue
-
-Our baseline estimates can be compared to official government projections:
-
-**PolicyEngine Estimates (Annual Average 2026-2035):**
-- Social Security benefit taxation revenue: ~$48-50 billion annually
-- Growing to ~$55-60 billion by 2035
-
-**Congressional Budget Office (2023):**
-- Social Security benefit taxation revenue: ~$47-49 billion annually {cite}`cbo2023`
-- Projected growth consistent with demographic and economic assumptions
-
-**Comparison:** Our baseline estimates align with CBO projections.
-
-## Policy Option Comparisons
-
-### Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap Comparison
-
-**Our Estimate:** -$1,123.5 billion over 10 years (revenue loss)
-
-**Comparison Notes:**
-- No direct comparable estimates available from CBO for this specific phased approach
-- The gradual implementation creates complex revenue patterns over time
-- Long-term effects would differ significantly from immediate implementation options
-
-### Option 1: Full Repeal Comparison
-
-**Our Estimate:** $1,149.0 billion over 10 years (revenue loss from eliminating taxation)
-
-**CBO Budget Options (Historical Analysis):**
-- Estimated cost of full repeal: $400-500 billion over 10 years
-- Note: CBO estimates are typically from earlier years with different baselines
-
-**Reconciliation Factors:**
-- Our estimates reflect more recent demographic projections showing larger retiree populations
-- Higher Social Security benefit levels in current projections
-- Different baseline economic assumptions
-- CBO estimates may not include interaction with senior deduction expiration
-
-**Assessment:** Our estimates are higher than historical CBO analysis, consistent with growing beneficiary population and benefit levels.
-
-### Option 5: Roth-Style Swap Comparison
-
-**Our Estimate:** -$756.2 billion over 10 years (revenue loss)
-
-**Comparison Notes:**
-- Limited comparable analysis available for this approach
-- The revenue pattern reflects the difference between current benefit taxation and employer contribution taxation
-- CBO has not published detailed estimates for this specific policy structure
-
-### Option 2: Universal 85% Taxation Comparison
-
-**Our Estimate:** -$219.3 billion over 10 years (revenue loss)
-
-**Joint Committee on Taxation Analysis:**
-- Historical JCT estimates suggested universal taxation could raise $200-300 billion over 10 years
-- Note: JCT analysis assumed elimination of thresholds would increase revenue
-
-**Reconciliation Factors:**
-- Our analysis accounts for senior deduction interactions not captured in some JCT estimates
-- Different treatment of threshold elimination effects
-- Timing of senior deduction expiration affects comparison
-- JCT estimates may assume different baseline taxation patterns
-
-**Assessment:** The difference highlights the importance of modeling complex tax interactions and current law baseline assumptions.
-
-### Option 4: Tax Credit System Comparison
-
-**Our Estimate:** -$86.8 billion over 10 years (revenue loss)
-
-**Comparison Notes:**
-- No direct comparable estimates available from CBO for this specific credit structure
-- The $500 credit combined with 85% taxation creates unique revenue patterns
-- Credit design affects low and middle-income taxpayers differently than historical proposals
-
-### Option 3: 85% Taxation with Senior Deduction Extension Comparison
-
-**Our Estimate:** -$27.9 billion over 10 years (revenue loss)
-
-**Comparison Notes:**
-- Limited comparable analysis combining benefit taxation expansion with permanent deduction extension
-- The interaction between these provisions creates complex net revenue effects
-- Revenue pattern changes significantly after 2028 due to deduction interactions
-
-## Methodological Differences
-
-### Data Sources
-
-**PolicyEngine Approach:**
-- Enhanced Current Population Survey (2024)
-- Administrative data integration where available
-- Nationally representative microsimulation
-
-**Government Estimates:**
-- **CBO:** Mixture of survey data, administrative records, and economic modeling
-- **JCT:** Tax model based on administrative tax data and survey supplements
-- **SSA:** Actuarial models with administrative benefit data
-
-### Analytical Scope
-
-**PolicyEngine Analysis:**
-- Static microsimulation (no behavioral responses)
-- 10-year budget window focus
-- Detailed household-level modeling
-- Open-source, transparent methodology
-
-**Government Analysis:**
-- **CBO:** Often includes limited dynamic effects and macroeconomic feedback
-- **JCT:** Static analysis similar to ours, but with different data sources
-- **SSA:** Long-term actuarial focus (75-year projections)
-
-### Key Assumption Differences
-
-1. **Economic Growth**: Government estimates may incorporate different wage and inflation assumptions
-2. **Demographic Projections**: Baseline population and beneficiary growth assumptions may vary
-3. **Baseline Definition**: Treatment of current law provisions (especially senior deduction) may differ
-4. **Implementation Details**: Specific policy parameters may be interpreted differently
-
-## Academic Research Comparisons
-
-### Tax Policy Center Analysis
-
-**TPC Research on Benefit Taxation:**
-- Estimated 40% of beneficiaries currently pay taxes on benefits {cite}`tpc2023ss`
-- Distributional analysis shows concentration among middle-income retirees
-- Estimated effective marginal tax rates up to 85% for some taxpayers
-
-**Our Analysis Alignment:**
-- Consistent findings on current taxpayer distribution
-- Similar patterns of effective marginal tax rate impacts
-- Comparable estimates of threshold effects
-
-**Differences:**
-- TPC analysis often focuses on distributional rather than aggregate revenue effects
-- Different baseline years and economic assumptions
-- Varying treatment of state tax interactions
-
-### Academic Economic Studies
-
-**Efficiency Analysis:**
-- Academic work on work disincentives aligns with our finding of high effective rates
-- Studies on retirement timing effects consistent with our policy design observations
-- Research on horizontal equity issues matches our distributional insights
-
-**Validation Points:**
-- Labor supply elasticity assumptions in academic work support our static approach for short-term estimates
-- Findings on tax complexity align with our observations about current system
-- International comparison research supports our policy option framework
-
-## Explaining Estimate Differences
-
-### Structural Factors
-
-1. **Baseline Differences**: Estimates depend heavily on assumptions about current law revenue baseline
-2. **Timing Effects**: When policies take effect and interact with existing provisions
-3. **Data Vintage**: Newer data sources may show different patterns than historical estimates
-4. **Economic Assumptions**: Growth rates, inflation, and wage progression assumptions
-
-### Methodological Factors
-
-1. **Static vs. Dynamic**: Our static approach may miss behavioral responses captured in dynamic models
-2. **Microsimulation Detail**: Household-level modeling may capture interactions missed in aggregate approaches
-3. **Tax Code Implementation**: Exact specification of complex tax provisions can affect results
-4. **Sample Composition**: Different data sources may have varying representation of affected populations
-
-## Confidence Assessment
-
-### Areas of Alignment
-
-1. **Direction of Effects**: Our estimates show similar directional impacts as prior research
-2. **Relative Magnitudes**: The ordering of policy options by fiscal impact follows similar patterns
-3. **Policy Characteristics**: Similar findings on revenue and taxpayer effects
-4. **Distributional Patterns**: Similar patterns to prior research on affected populations
-
-### Areas of Uncertainty
-
-1. **Exact Magnitudes**: Significant variation in cost/savings estimates across sources
-2. **Interaction Effects**: Complex interactions between provisions may be modeled differently
-3. **Long-term Projections**: Uncertainty increases for later years in projection period
-4. **Implementation Assumptions**: Different approaches to modeling policy implementation details
-
-## Recommendations for Interpretation
-
-### Using These Estimates
-
-1. **Focus on Relative Comparisons**: More confidence in relative rankings than absolute magnitudes
-2. **Consider Ranges**: Treat estimates as central tendencies within plausible ranges
-3. **Update with New Information**: Estimates should be revised as new data and assumptions become available
-4. **Policy Design Insights**: Most confidence in qualitative insights about policy trade-offs
-
-### Additional Analysis Needed
-
-1. **Dynamic Effects**: Behavioral response analysis would improve long-term accuracy
-2. **Distributional Detail**: More detailed analysis of impacts across income and demographic groups
-3. **State Tax Interactions**: Analysis of state-level tax implications
-4. **Administrative Costs**: Estimates of implementation and compliance costs
-
-## Summary Assessment
-
-Our PolicyEngine analysis provides estimates that:
-- **Show similar patterns** to prior research in direction and relative magnitude of effects
-- **Differ in some cases** in absolute magnitude due to methodological and data differences
-- **Include detailed modeling** of tax code interactions and household-level effects
-- **Add to** existing government and academic analysis
-
-The differences in estimates underscore the importance of:
-- Transparent methodology and assumptions
-- Multiple analytical approaches to complex policy questions
-- Regular updating as new data and methods become available
-- Focus on robust policy insights rather than precise point estimates
-
-These comparisons show alignment between different analytical approaches and identify areas for potential additional research.
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diff --git a/juypterbook/favicon.ico b/juypterbook/favicon.ico
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index 0000000..8e7625f
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diff --git a/juypterbook/hide_code_cells.py b/juypterbook/hide_code_cells.py
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index 0000000..e1a8ce2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/hide_code_cells.py
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+import json
+import sys
+
+def hide_code_cells(notebook_path):
+ with open(notebook_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+ notebook = json.load(f)
+
+ for cell in notebook['cells']:
+ if cell['cell_type'] == 'code':
+ if 'metadata' not in cell:
+ cell['metadata'] = {}
+ if 'tags' not in cell['metadata']:
+ cell['metadata']['tags'] = []
+ if 'hide-input' not in cell['metadata']['tags']:
+ cell['metadata']['tags'].append('hide-input')
+
+ with open(notebook_path, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+ json.dump(notebook, f, indent=1, ensure_ascii=False)
+
+ print(f"Successfully added hide-input tags to all code cells in {notebook_path}")
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+ hide_code_cells('household_impacts.ipynb')
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/household-impacts.ipynb b/juypterbook/household-impacts.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2fdfd2a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/household-impacts.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,30960 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "# Household Impact Analysis\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This chapter analyzes how each of the seven Social Security taxation reform options affects individual households across different income levels. The analysis shows both the change in net income and comparative baseline vs. reform scenarios for each policy option.\n",
+ "\n",
+ "## Household Example\n",
+ "\n",
+ "The household impact analysis uses a representative household with the following characteristics:\n",
+ "- Single elderly tax filer\n",
+ "- Age 70\n",
+ "- Social Security benefits: $30,000 per year\n",
+ "- Employment income varying from $0 to $200,000 in $500 increments\n",
+ "- Located in Florida (no state income tax)\n",
+ "- Standard deduction\n",
+ "\n",
+ "For each income level and policy option, we calculate:\n",
+ "1. **Change in Net Income**: The difference in household net income under the reform versus baseline\n",
+ "2. **Baseline vs Reform Comparison**: Total net income under current law versus under each policy reform"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 1,
+ "metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T20:30:34.736513Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T20:30:34.735516Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.165022Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.164512Z"
+ },
+ "tags": [
+ "hide-input",
+ "hide-output"
+ ]
+ },
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stderr",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "C:\\Users\\dtsax\\AppData\\Local\\Programs\\Python\\Python311\\Lib\\site-packages\\tqdm\\auto.py:21: TqdmWarning: IProgress not found. Please update jupyter and ipywidgets. See https://ipywidgets.readthedocs.io/en/stable/user_install.html\n",
+ " from .autonotebook import tqdm as notebook_tqdm\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Libraries loaded successfully!\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Import necessary libraries\n",
+ "from IPython.display import display, HTML\n",
+ "import plotly.express as px\n",
+ "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
+ "import pandas as pd\n",
+ "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
+ "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
+ "import warnings\n",
+ "warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Define PolicyEngine's color palette\n",
+ "BLACK = \"#000000\"\n",
+ "BLUE_LIGHT = \"#D8E6F3\"\n",
+ "BLUE_PRIMARY = \"#2C6496\"\n",
+ "DARK_BLUE_HOVER = \"#1d3e5e\"\n",
+ "DARK_GRAY = \"#616161\"\n",
+ "DARKEST_BLUE = \"#0C1A27\"\n",
+ "GRAY = \"#808080\"\n",
+ "LIGHT_GRAY = \"#F2F2F2\"\n",
+ "MEDIUM_DARK_GRAY = \"#D2D2D2\"\n",
+ "MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#BDBDBD\"\n",
+ "WHITE = \"#FFFFFF\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Libraries loaded successfully!\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 2,
+ "metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.167032Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.167032Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.175127Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.175127Z"
+ },
+ "tags": [
+ "hide-input"
+ ]
+ },
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "# Define the base household situation\n",
+ "def get_household_situation():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Create the base household situation for analysis\"\"\"\n",
+ " return {\n",
+ " \"people\": {\n",
+ " \"person1\": {\n",
+ " \"age\": {\"2026\": 70},\n",
+ " \"social_security_retirement\": {\"2026\": 30000}\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"families\": {\n",
+ " \"your family\": {\"members\": [\"person1\"]}\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"marital_units\": {\n",
+ " \"your marital unit\": {\"members\": [\"person1\"]}\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"tax_units\": {\n",
+ " \"your tax unit\": {\"members\": [\"person1\"]}\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"spm_units\": {\n",
+ " \"your household\": {\"members\": [\"person1\"]}\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"households\": {\n",
+ " \"your household\": {\n",
+ " \"members\": [\"person1\"],\n",
+ " \"state_name\": {\"2026\": \"FL\"}\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"axes\": [[\n",
+ " {\n",
+ " \"name\": \"employment_income\",\n",
+ " \"count\": 401,\n",
+ " \"min\": 0,\n",
+ " \"max\": 200000\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " ]]\n",
+ " }"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 3,
+ "metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.177135Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.177135Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.194882Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.194882Z"
+ },
+ "tags": [
+ "hide-input",
+ "hide-output"
+ ]
+ },
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Reform functions defined successfully!\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Define all reform functions\n",
+ "def get_option1_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 1: Full Repeal of Social Security Benefits Taxation\"\"\"\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "def get_option2_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits\"\"\"\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.85\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "def get_option3_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 3: 85% Taxation with Permanent Senior Deduction Extension\"\"\"\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.85\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.senior_deduction_extension.applies\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "def get_option4_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 4: Social Security Tax Credit System ($500 Credit)\"\"\"\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.85\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.in_effect\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.JOINT\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SINGLE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SEPARATE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.deductions.senior_deduction.amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "def get_option5_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\"\"\"\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.in_effect\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.percentage\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 1.0\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "def get_option6_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap\"\"\"\n",
+ " reform_dict = {\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.in_effect\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.percentage\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2026-12-31\": 0.1307,\n",
+ " \"2027-01-01.2027-12-31\": 0.2614,\n",
+ " \"2028-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.3922,\n",
+ " \"2029-01-01.2029-12-31\": 0.5229,\n",
+ " \"2030-01-01.2030-12-31\": 0.6536,\n",
+ " \"2031-01-01.2031-12-31\": 0.7843,\n",
+ " \"2032-01-01.2032-12-31\": 0.9150,\n",
+ " \"2033-01-01.2100-12-31\": 1.0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
+ " \"2029-01-01.2029-12-31\": 0.45,\n",
+ " \"2030-01-01.2030-12-31\": 0.40,\n",
+ " \"2031-01-01.2031-12-31\": 0.35,\n",
+ " \"2032-01-01.2032-12-31\": 0.30,\n",
+ " \"2033-01-01.2033-12-31\": 0.25,\n",
+ " \"2034-01-01.2034-12-31\": 0.20,\n",
+ " \"2035-01-01.2035-12-31\": 0.15,\n",
+ " \"2036-01-01.2036-12-31\": 0.10,\n",
+ " \"2037-01-01.2037-12-31\": 0.05,\n",
+ " \"2038-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional\": {\n",
+ " \"2029-01-01.2029-12-31\": 0.80,\n",
+ " \"2030-01-01.2030-12-31\": 0.75,\n",
+ " \"2031-01-01.2031-12-31\": 0.70,\n",
+ " \"2032-01-01.2032-12-31\": 0.65,\n",
+ " \"2033-01-01.2033-12-31\": 0.60,\n",
+ " \"2034-01-01.2034-12-31\": 0.55,\n",
+ " \"2035-01-01.2035-12-31\": 0.50,\n",
+ " \"2036-01-01.2036-12-31\": 0.45,\n",
+ " \"2037-01-01.2037-12-31\": 0.40,\n",
+ " \"2038-01-01.2038-12-31\": 0.35,\n",
+ " \"2039-01-01.2039-12-31\": 0.30,\n",
+ " \"2040-01-01.2040-12-31\": 0.25,\n",
+ " \"2041-01-01.2041-12-31\": 0.20,\n",
+ " \"2042-01-01.2042-12-31\": 0.15,\n",
+ " \"2043-01-01.2043-12-31\": 0.10,\n",
+ " \"2044-01-01.2044-12-31\": 0.05,\n",
+ " \"2045-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict(reform_dict, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "def get_option7_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Eliminates the $6,000 bonus senior deduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill\n",
+ " that has a 6% phase-out beginning at $75k/$150k for single/joint filers.\n",
+ " The deduction expires in 2029, so there's only impact from 2026-2028.\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.deductions.senior_deduction.amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Reform functions defined successfully!\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 4,
+ "metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.199925Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.198760Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.213028Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T20:30:58.213028Z"
+ },
+ "tags": [
+ "hide-input",
+ "hide-output"
+ ]
+ },
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Helper functions defined successfully!\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Function to calculate impacts for a given reform\n",
+ "def calculate_reform_impact(reform, situation):\n",
+ " \"\"\"Calculate the impact of a reform on household net income\"\"\"\n",
+ " # Calculate reform net income\n",
+ " simulation_reform = Simulation(\n",
+ " reform=reform,\n",
+ " situation=situation,\n",
+ " )\n",
+ " reform_net_income = simulation_reform.calculate(\"household_net_income\", 2026)\n",
+ " \n",
+ " # Calculate baseline net income\n",
+ " simulation_baseline = Simulation(\n",
+ " situation=situation,\n",
+ " )\n",
+ " baseline_net_income = simulation_baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", 2026)\n",
+ " \n",
+ " # Calculate change in net income\n",
+ " change_in_net_income = reform_net_income - baseline_net_income\n",
+ " \n",
+ " return reform_net_income, baseline_net_income, change_in_net_income\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Function to create change in net income graph\n",
+ "def create_change_graph(change_data, title_suffix=\"\"):\n",
+ " \"\"\"Create a graph showing change in net income\"\"\"\n",
+ " employment_income = [i * 500 for i in range(401)]\n",
+ " \n",
+ " df = pd.DataFrame({\n",
+ " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
+ " \"Change in Net Income\": change_data,\n",
+ " })\n",
+ " \n",
+ " fig = px.line(\n",
+ " df,\n",
+ " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
+ " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
+ " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
+ " title=f\"Change in Net Income{title_suffix}
Single Elderly Filer with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
+ " ).update_layout(\n",
+ " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
+ " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
+ " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
+ " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
+ " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
+ " font_color=BLACK,\n",
+ " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
+ " annotations=[\n",
+ " {\n",
+ " \"x\": 1,\n",
+ " \"y\": -0.25,\n",
+ " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
+ " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
+ " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
+ " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
+ " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " ],\n",
+ " )\n",
+ " \n",
+ " return fig\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Function to create comparison graph\n",
+ "def create_comparison_graph(reform_data, baseline_data, title_suffix=\"\"):\n",
+ " \"\"\"Create a graph comparing reform and baseline net income\"\"\"\n",
+ " employment_income = [i * 500 for i in range(401)]\n",
+ " \n",
+ " df = pd.DataFrame({\n",
+ " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
+ " \"Reform Net Income\": reform_data,\n",
+ " \"Baseline Net Income\": baseline_data,\n",
+ " })\n",
+ " \n",
+ " df_melted = df.melt(\n",
+ " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
+ " value_vars=[\"Reform Net Income\", \"Baseline Net Income\"],\n",
+ " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
+ " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
+ " )\n",
+ " \n",
+ " fig = px.line(\n",
+ " df_melted,\n",
+ " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
+ " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
+ " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
+ " color_discrete_map={\n",
+ " \"Reform Net Income\": BLUE_PRIMARY,\n",
+ " \"Baseline Net Income\": DARK_GRAY\n",
+ " },\n",
+ " title=f\"Net Income Comparison: Reform vs Baseline{title_suffix}
Single Elderly Filer with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
+ " ).update_layout(\n",
+ " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
+ " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
+ " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
+ " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
+ " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
+ " font_color=BLACK,\n",
+ " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
+ " legend=dict(\n",
+ " yanchor=\"top\",\n",
+ " y=0.99,\n",
+ " xanchor=\"left\",\n",
+ " x=0.01\n",
+ " ),\n",
+ " annotations=[\n",
+ " {\n",
+ " \"x\": 1,\n",
+ " \"y\": -0.25,\n",
+ " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
+ " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
+ " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
+ " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
+ " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " ],\n",
+ " )\n",
+ " \n",
+ " return fig\n",
+ "\n",
+ "print(\"Helper functions defined successfully!\")"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## Option 1: Full Repeal of Social Security Benefits Taxation\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option completely eliminates federal income taxation of Social Security benefits, returning to the pre-1984 policy where benefits were not subject to income tax."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 5,
+ "metadata": {
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+ "source": [
+ "# Option 1: Full Repeal\n",
+ "situation = get_household_situation()\n",
+ "reform1 = get_option1_reform()\n",
+ "reform1_net, baseline1_net, change1 = calculate_reform_impact(reform1, situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display change in net income graph\n",
+ "fig1_change = create_change_graph(change1, \" - Option 1: Full Repeal\")\n",
+ "fig1_change.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display comparison graph\n",
+ "fig1_comparison = create_comparison_graph(reform1_net, baseline1_net, \" - Option 1: Full Repeal\")\n",
+ "fig1_comparison.show()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits for all recipients, regardless of income level, eliminating the current threshold system."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ "text": "Net Income Comparison: Reform vs Baseline - Option 2: 85% Taxation
Single Elderly Filer with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits"
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+ "source": [
+ "# Option 2: 85% Taxation\n",
+ "situation = get_household_situation()\n",
+ "reform2 = get_option2_reform()\n",
+ "reform2_net, baseline2_net, change2 = calculate_reform_impact(reform2, situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display change in net income graph\n",
+ "fig2_change = create_change_graph(change2, \" - Option 2: 85% Taxation\")\n",
+ "fig2_change.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display comparison graph\n",
+ "fig2_comparison = create_comparison_graph(reform2_net, baseline2_net, \" - Option 2: 85% Taxation\")\n",
+ "fig2_comparison.show()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## Option 3: 85% Taxation with Permanent Senior Deduction Extension\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option combines taxation of 85% of benefits with a permanent extension of the senior deduction that would otherwise expire in 2028."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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Single Elderly Filer with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits"
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+ "source": [
+ "# Option 3: 85% with Senior Deduction\n",
+ "situation = get_household_situation()\n",
+ "reform3 = get_option3_reform()\n",
+ "reform3_net, baseline3_net, change3 = calculate_reform_impact(reform3, situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display change in net income graph\n",
+ "fig3_change = create_change_graph(change3, \" - Option 3: 85% with Senior Deduction\")\n",
+ "fig3_change.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display comparison graph\n",
+ "fig3_comparison = create_comparison_graph(reform3_net, baseline3_net, \" - Option 3: 85% with Senior Deduction\")\n",
+ "fig3_comparison.show()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## Option 4: Social Security Tax Credit System ($500 Credit)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option replaces the senior deduction with a $500 nonrefundable tax credit while taxing 85% of benefits."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ },
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+ "source": [
+ "# Option 4: Tax Credit System\n",
+ "situation = get_household_situation()\n",
+ "reform4 = get_option4_reform()\n",
+ "reform4_net, baseline4_net, change4 = calculate_reform_impact(reform4, situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display change in net income graph\n",
+ "fig4_change = create_change_graph(change4, \" - Option 4: $500 Tax Credit\")\n",
+ "fig4_change.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display comparison graph\n",
+ "fig4_comparison = create_comparison_graph(reform4_net, baseline4_net, \" - Option 4: $500 Tax Credit\")\n",
+ "fig4_comparison.show()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option eliminates Social Security benefit taxation while making employer payroll contributions taxable income."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 9,
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+ "title": {
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+ "source": [
+ "# Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\n",
+ "situation = get_household_situation()\n",
+ "reform5 = get_option5_reform()\n",
+ "reform5_net, baseline5_net, change5 = calculate_reform_impact(reform5, situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display change in net income graph\n",
+ "fig5_change = create_change_graph(change5, \" - Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\")\n",
+ "fig5_change.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display comparison graph\n",
+ "fig5_comparison = create_comparison_graph(reform5_net, baseline5_net, \" - Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\")\n",
+ "fig5_comparison.show()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option implements a gradual transition to the Roth-style system over multiple years, phasing in employer contribution taxation while phasing out benefit taxation."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
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+ "title": {
+ "text": "Net Income Comparison: Reform vs Baseline - Option 6: Phased Roth-Style
Single Elderly Filer with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits"
+ },
+ "xaxis": {
+ "anchor": "y",
+ "domain": [
+ 0,
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+ },
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+ "source": [
+ "# Option 6: Phased Roth-Style\n",
+ "situation = get_household_situation()\n",
+ "reform6 = get_option6_reform()\n",
+ "reform6_net, baseline6_net, change6 = calculate_reform_impact(reform6, situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display change in net income graph\n",
+ "fig6_change = create_change_graph(change6, \" - Option 6: Phased Roth-Style\")\n",
+ "fig6_change.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display comparison graph\n",
+ "fig6_comparison = create_comparison_graph(reform6_net, baseline6_net, \" - Option 6: Phased Roth-Style\")\n",
+ "fig6_comparison.show()"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "## Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option eliminates the $6,000 bonus senior deduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill that includes a 6% phase-out beginning at $75k for single filers and $150k for joint filers. Since this deduction expires in 2029, Option 7 only has revenue impact from 2026-2028."
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": 11,
+ "metadata": {
+ "cell_metadata": {
+ "tags": [
+ "hide-input"
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+ "linecolor": "white",
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+ "bgcolor": "#E5ECF6",
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+ "linecolor": "white",
+ "ticks": ""
+ }
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+ "xaxis": {
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+ "gridcolor": "white",
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+ }
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+ "title": {
+ "text": "Net Income Comparison: Reform vs Baseline - Option 7: Eliminate Senior Deduction
Single Elderly Filer with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits"
+ },
+ "xaxis": {
+ "anchor": "y",
+ "domain": [
+ 0,
+ 1
+ ],
+ "tickformat": ",",
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Employment Income ($)"
+ }
+ },
+ "yaxis": {
+ "anchor": "x",
+ "domain": [
+ 0,
+ 1
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+ "tickformat": ",",
+ "title": {
+ "text": "Net Income ($)"
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+ }
+ }
+ },
+ "text/html": [
+ ""
+ ]
+ },
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
+ }
+ ],
+ "source": [
+ "# Option 7: Eliminate Senior Deduction\n",
+ "situation = get_household_situation()\n",
+ "reform7 = get_option7_reform()\n",
+ "reform7_net, baseline7_net, change7 = calculate_reform_impact(reform7, situation)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display change in net income graph\n",
+ "fig7_change = create_change_graph(change7, \" - Option 7: Eliminate Senior Deduction\")\n",
+ "fig7_change.show()\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Create and display comparison graph\n",
+ "fig7_comparison = create_comparison_graph(reform7_net, baseline7_net, \" - Option 7: Eliminate Senior Deduction\")\n",
+ "fig7_comparison.show()"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+ "kernelspec": {
+ "display_name": "pe",
+ "language": "python",
+ "name": "python3"
+ },
+ "language_info": {
+ "codemirror_mode": {
+ "name": "ipython",
+ "version": 3
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+ "file_extension": ".py",
+ "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+ "name": "python",
+ "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+ "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+ "version": "3.12.10"
+ }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 4
+}
diff --git a/juypterbook/household_impacts.ipynb b/juypterbook/household_impacts.ipynb
deleted file mode 100644
index e049eec..0000000
--- a/juypterbook/household_impacts.ipynb
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,964 +0,0 @@
-{
- "cells": [
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "# Household Impacts Analysis\n",
- "\n",
- "This section analyzes the impact of each reform option on a representative elderly married couple household with $30,000 in Social Security benefits, examining how the reforms affect their net income across different employment income levels."
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "from IPython.display import Markdown\n",
- "import plotly.express as px\n",
- "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
- "import pandas as pd\n",
- "from policyengine_us import Simulation\n",
- "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
- "\n",
- "# Define PolicyEngine's color palette\n",
- "BLACK = \"#000000\"\n",
- "BLUE_LIGHT = \"#D8E6F3\"\n",
- "BLUE_PRIMARY = \"#2C6496\"\n",
- "DARK_BLUE_HOVER = \"#1d3e5e\"\n",
- "DARK_GRAY = \"#616161\"\n",
- "DARKEST_BLUE = \"#0C1A27\"\n",
- "GRAY = \"#808080\"\n",
- "LIGHT_GRAY = \"#F2F2F2\"\n",
- "MEDIUM_DARK_GRAY = \"#D2D2D2\"\n",
- "MEDIUM_LIGHT_GRAY = \"#BDBDBD\"\n",
- "WHITE = \"#FFFFFF\""
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Define Household Situation\n",
- "\n",
- "We analyze an elderly married couple (both age 70) with $30,000 in Social Security retirement benefits, living in Florida. We examine how their net income changes across employment income levels from $0 to $200,000."
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Define the household situation\n",
- "situation = {\n",
- " \"people\": {\n",
- " \"you\": {\n",
- " \"age\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": 70\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"social_security_retirement\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": 30000\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"your partner\": {\n",
- " \"age\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": 70\n",
- " }\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"families\": {\n",
- " \"your family\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"marital_units\": {\n",
- " \"your marital unit\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"tax_units\": {\n",
- " \"your tax unit\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"spm_units\": {\n",
- " \"your household\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ]\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"households\": {\n",
- " \"your household\": {\n",
- " \"members\": [\n",
- " \"you\",\n",
- " \"your partner\"\n",
- " ],\n",
- " \"state_name\": {\n",
- " \"2026\": \"FL\"\n",
- " }\n",
- " }\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"axes\": [\n",
- " [\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"name\": \"employment_income\",\n",
- " \"count\": 401,\n",
- " \"min\": 0,\n",
- " \"max\": 200000,\n",
- " \"period\": \"2026\"\n",
- " }\n",
- " ]\n",
- " ]\n",
- "}"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Define Reform Options\n",
- "\n",
- "We analyze six different reform options for Social Security taxation:"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 1: Full Repeal of SS Taxation\n",
- "reform_option1 = Reform.from_dict({\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " }\n",
- "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Option 2: Tax 85% of All SS Benefits\n",
- "reform_option2 = Reform.from_dict({\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.85\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " }\n",
- "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Option 3: Tax 85% of All SS Benefits with Extended Senior Deduction\n",
- "reform_option3 = Reform.from_dict({\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.85\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.senior_deduction_extension.applies\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
- " }\n",
- "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Option 4: Tax 85% of All SS Benefits with $500 Credit\n",
- "reform_option4 = Reform.from_dict({\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0.85\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.in_effect\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.JOINT\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SINGLE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SEPARATE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SURVIVING_SPOUSE\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 500\n",
- " }\n",
- "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Option 5: Roth-Style Swap (Tax employer payroll, exempt SS benefits)\n",
- "reform_option5 = Reform.from_dict({\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.in_effect\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.percentage\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 1.0\n",
- " }\n",
- "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap\n",
- "# Year 1 of phase-in: 13% of employer contributions taxable (1% / 7.65%)\n",
- "reform_option6 = Reform.from_dict({\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.in_effect\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": True\n",
- " },\n",
- " \"gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.percentage\": {\n",
- " \"2026-01-01.2026-12-31\": 0.13,\n",
- " \"2027-01-01.2027-12-31\": 0.26,\n",
- " \"2028-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.39\n",
- " }\n",
- " # Social Security benefits remain at current law in 2026-2028\n",
- " # Phase-down of SS taxation begins in 2029 (not shown for 2026 analysis)\n",
- "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
- "\n",
- "reforms = {\n",
- " \"Option 1: Full Repeal\": reform_option1,\n",
- " \"Option 2: Tax 85% of All SS\": reform_option2,\n",
- " \"Option 3: Tax 85% + Senior Deduction\": reform_option3,\n",
- " \"Option 4: Tax 85% + $500 Credit\": reform_option4,\n",
- " \"Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\": reform_option5,\n",
- " \"Option 6: Phased Roth Swap\": reform_option6\n",
- "}"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Calculate Impact for Each Reform"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Calculate baseline net income\n",
- "simulation_baseline = Simulation(situation=situation)\n",
- "baseline_net_income = simulation_baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", 2026)\n",
- "\n",
- "# Calculate reform impacts\n",
- "results = {}\n",
- "changes = {}\n",
- "\n",
- "for name, reform in reforms.items():\n",
- " simulation_reform = Simulation(reform=reform, situation=situation)\n",
- " reform_net_income = simulation_reform.calculate(\"household_net_income\", 2026)\n",
- " results[name] = reform_net_income\n",
- " changes[name] = reform_net_income - baseline_net_income\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create employment income array\n",
- "employment_income = [i * 500 for i in range(401)]"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Option 1: Full Repeal of SS Taxation"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 1: Change in Net Income\n",
- "df_option1_change = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Change in Net Income\": changes[\"Option 1: Full Repeal\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option1_change = px.line(\n",
- " df_option1_change,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
- " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
- " title=\"Option 1: Full Repeal - Change in Net Income
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option1_change.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 1: Reform vs Baseline Net Income\n",
- "df_option1_comparison = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline\": baseline_net_income,\n",
- " \"Reform\": results[\"Option 1: Full Repeal\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "df_option1_melted = df_option1_comparison.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option1_comparison = px.line(\n",
- " df_option1_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\"Baseline\": DARK_GRAY, \"Reform\": BLUE_PRIMARY},\n",
- " title=\"Option 1: Full Repeal - Net Income Comparison
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(yanchor=\"top\", y=0.99, xanchor=\"left\", x=0.01),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option1_comparison.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Option 2: Tax 85% of All SS Benefits"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 2: Change in Net Income\n",
- "df_option2_change = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Change in Net Income\": changes[\"Option 2: Tax 85% of All SS\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option2_change = px.line(\n",
- " df_option2_change,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
- " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
- " title=\"Option 2: Tax 85% of All SS - Change in Net Income
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option2_change.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 2: Reform vs Baseline Net Income\n",
- "df_option2_comparison = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline\": baseline_net_income,\n",
- " \"Reform\": results[\"Option 2: Tax 85% of All SS\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "df_option2_melted = df_option2_comparison.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option2_comparison = px.line(\n",
- " df_option2_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\"Baseline\": DARK_GRAY, \"Reform\": BLUE_PRIMARY},\n",
- " title=\"Option 2: Tax 85% of All SS - Net Income Comparison
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(yanchor=\"top\", y=0.99, xanchor=\"left\", x=0.01),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option2_comparison.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Option 3: Tax 85% + Senior Deduction"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 3: Change in Net Income\n",
- "df_option3_change = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Change in Net Income\": changes[\"Option 3: Tax 85% + Senior Deduction\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option3_change = px.line(\n",
- " df_option3_change,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
- " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
- " title=\"Option 3: Tax 85% + Senior Deduction - Change in Net Income
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option3_change.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 3: Reform vs Baseline Net Income\n",
- "df_option3_comparison = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline\": baseline_net_income,\n",
- " \"Reform\": results[\"Option 3: Tax 85% + Senior Deduction\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "df_option3_melted = df_option3_comparison.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option3_comparison = px.line(\n",
- " df_option3_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\"Baseline\": DARK_GRAY, \"Reform\": BLUE_PRIMARY},\n",
- " title=\"Option 3: Tax 85% + Senior Deduction - Net Income Comparison
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(yanchor=\"top\", y=0.99, xanchor=\"left\", x=0.01),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option3_comparison.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Option 4: Tax 85% + $500 Credit"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 4: Change in Net Income\n",
- "df_option4_change = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Change in Net Income\": changes[\"Option 4: Tax 85% + $500 Credit\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option4_change = px.line(\n",
- " df_option4_change,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
- " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
- " title=\"Option 4: Tax 85% + $500 Credit - Change in Net Income
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option4_change.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 4: Reform vs Baseline Net Income\n",
- "df_option4_comparison = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline\": baseline_net_income,\n",
- " \"Reform\": results[\"Option 4: Tax 85% + $500 Credit\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "df_option4_melted = df_option4_comparison.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option4_comparison = px.line(\n",
- " df_option4_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\"Baseline\": DARK_GRAY, \"Reform\": BLUE_PRIMARY},\n",
- " title=\"Option 4: Tax 85% + $500 Credit - Net Income Comparison
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(yanchor=\"top\", y=0.99, xanchor=\"left\", x=0.01),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option4_comparison.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Option 5: Roth-Style Swap"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 5: Change in Net Income\n",
- "df_option5_change = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Change in Net Income\": changes[\"Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option5_change = px.line(\n",
- " df_option5_change,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
- " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
- " title=\"Option 5: Roth-Style Swap - Change in Net Income
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option5_change.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 5: Reform vs Baseline Net Income\n",
- "df_option5_comparison = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline\": baseline_net_income,\n",
- " \"Reform\": results[\"Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "df_option5_melted = df_option5_comparison.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option5_comparison = px.line(\n",
- " df_option5_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\"Baseline\": DARK_GRAY, \"Reform\": BLUE_PRIMARY},\n",
- " title=\"Option 5: Roth-Style Swap - Net Income Comparison
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(yanchor=\"top\", y=0.99, xanchor=\"left\", x=0.01),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option5_comparison.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Option 6: Phased Roth Swap"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 6: Change in Net Income\n",
- "df_option6_change = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Change in Net Income\": changes[\"Option 6: Phased Roth Swap\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option6_change = px.line(\n",
- " df_option6_change,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Change in Net Income\",\n",
- " color_discrete_sequence=[BLUE_PRIMARY],\n",
- " title=\"Option 6: Phased Roth Swap - Change in Net Income
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Change in Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option6_change.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Option 6: Reform vs Baseline Net Income\n",
- "df_option6_comparison = pd.DataFrame({\n",
- " \"Employment Income\": employment_income,\n",
- " \"Baseline\": baseline_net_income,\n",
- " \"Reform\": results[\"Option 6: Phased Roth Swap\"]\n",
- "})\n",
- "\n",
- "df_option6_melted = df_option6_comparison.melt(\n",
- " id_vars=[\"Employment Income\"],\n",
- " var_name=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " value_name=\"Net Income\"\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option6_comparison = px.line(\n",
- " df_option6_melted,\n",
- " x=\"Employment Income\",\n",
- " y=\"Net Income\",\n",
- " color=\"Scenario\",\n",
- " color_discrete_map={\"Baseline\": DARK_GRAY, \"Reform\": BLUE_PRIMARY},\n",
- " title=\"Option 6: Phased Roth Swap - Net Income Comparison
Elderly Married Couple with $30,000 in Social Security Benefits\",\n",
- ").update_layout(\n",
- " font=dict(family=\"Roboto Serif\"),\n",
- " xaxis_title=\"Employment Income ($)\",\n",
- " yaxis_title=\"Net Income ($)\",\n",
- " xaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " yaxis_tickformat=\",\",\n",
- " font_color=BLACK,\n",
- " margin={\"l\": 50, \"r\": 50, \"b\": 100, \"t\": 100, \"pad\": 4},\n",
- " legend=dict(yanchor=\"top\", y=0.99, xanchor=\"left\", x=0.01),\n",
- " annotations=[\n",
- " {\n",
- " \"x\": 1,\n",
- " \"y\": -0.15,\n",
- " \"xref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"yref\": \"paper\",\n",
- " \"text\": \"Source: PolicyEngine US\",\n",
- " \"showarrow\": False,\n",
- " \"font\": {\"family\": \"Roboto Serif\", \"size\": 10, \"color\": DARK_GRAY},\n",
- " }\n",
- " ],\n",
- ")\n",
- "\n",
- "fig_option6_comparison.show()"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Summary Table: Impact at Key Income Levels"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {},
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "# Create summary table at key income levels\n",
- "key_incomes = [0, 25000, 50000, 75000, 100000, 150000, 200000]\n",
- "summary_data = []\n",
- "\n",
- "for income in key_incomes:\n",
- " index = income // 500\n",
- " row = {\"Employment Income\": f\"${income:,}\"}\n",
- " for name, change in changes.items():\n",
- " short_name = name.replace(\"Option \", \"Opt \")\n",
- " row[short_name] = f\"${change[index]:,.0f}\"\n",
- " summary_data.append(row)\n",
- "\n",
- "df_summary = pd.DataFrame(summary_data)\n",
- "display(Markdown(\"### Change in Net Income at Key Employment Income Levels\"))\n",
- "display(df_summary)"
- ]
- }
- ],
- "metadata": {
- "kernelspec": {
- "display_name": "pe",
- "language": "python",
- "name": "python3"
- },
- "language_info": {
- "codemirror_mode": {
- "name": "ipython",
- "version": 3
- },
- "file_extension": ".py",
- "mimetype": "text/x-python",
- "name": "python",
- "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
- "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
- "version": "3.12.10"
- }
- },
- "nbformat": 4,
- "nbformat_minor": 4
-}
diff --git a/juypterbook/intro.md b/juypterbook/intro.md
index 962b2e3..ac3ff26 100644
--- a/juypterbook/intro.md
+++ b/juypterbook/intro.md
@@ -2,43 +2,31 @@
## Executive Summary
-This analysis examines six policy options for reforming the taxation of Social Security benefits, evaluating their 10-year budgetary impacts from 2026-2035 using microsimulation modeling. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) requested this analysis to inform policy discussions around Social Security solvency and tax reform.
+This analysis examines seven policy options for reforming the taxation of Social Security benefits, evaluating their 10-year budgetary impacts from 2026-2035 using microsimulation modeling. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) requested this analysis to inform policy discussions around Social Security solvency and tax reform.
Current law subjects Social Security benefits to income taxation under a two-tier system. Benefits become taxable when combined income, defined as the sum of an individual’s adjusted gross income (AGI), nontaxable interest and half of their Social Security benefits, exceeds certain thresholds, with up to 50% of benefits taxable at lower income levels and up to 85% at higher income levels. The revenue generated from this taxation is allocated to the Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds.
## Policy Options Analyzed
-This study examines six distinct approaches to reforming Social Security benefit taxation:
+This study examines seven distinct approaches to reforming Social Security benefit taxation:
- **Option 1 (Full Repeal)**: Complete elimination of Social Security benefit income taxation
- **Option 2 (85% Taxation)**: Taxation of 85% of all Social Security benefits regardless of income level
- **Option 3 (85% Taxation with Senior Deduction Extension)**: Combines 85% benefit taxation with permanent extension of the bonus senior deduction
-- **Option 4 (Tax Credit System)**: Replaces the bonus senior deduction with a $500 nonrefundable tax credit applied against Social Security taxation
+- **Option 4 (Tax Credit System)**: Replaces the bonus senior deduction with a \$500 nonrefundable tax credit applied against Social Security taxation
- **Option 5 (Roth-Style Swap)**: Eliminates benefit taxation while making employer payroll contributions taxable to employees
- **Option 6 (Phased Roth-Style Swap)**: Gradual implementation of the Roth-style approach over multiple years
-
-## Background and Context
-
-The taxation of Social Security benefits represents a significant component of federal revenue. This revenue stream directly supports the solvency of Social Security and Medicare trust funds, making reform considerations particularly complex from both fiscal and social policy perspectives.
-
-The current system results in changes in effective marginal tax rates when income crosses taxation thresholds, sometimes referred to as "tax cliffs."
-
-## Policy Environment
-
-According to the 2023 Trustees Report, the combined OASI and DI trust funds are projected to become depleted in 2034. Reforms to benefit taxation affect both direct budgetary impacts and overall program finances.
-
-This analysis provides quantitative estimates of both the budgetary impacts and household-level distributional effects of each reform option.
+- **Option 7 (Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction)**: Eliminates the \$6,000 bonus senior deduction (with 6% phase-out at \$75k/\$150k) from 2026-2028
## Report Structure
-This report is organized into six main sections:
+This report is organized into five main sections:
-1. **Policy Options**: Detailed descriptions of the six reform scenarios analyzed
-2. **Prior Research**: Review of existing analysis, particularly Congressional Budget Office estimates
+1. **Policy Options**: Detailed descriptions of the seven reform scenarios analyzed
+2. **Prior Research**: Review of existing analysis from CBO, CRFB, and Tax Foundation
3. **Methodology**: Description of our microsimulation modeling approach using PolicyEngine
4. **Policy Impacts**: Quantitative analysis of federal budgetary impacts for each option
5. **Household Impacts**: Distributional analysis showing how reforms affect different income groups and household types
-6. **Comparison**: How our estimates compare to other analytical sources
## Scope and Limitations
diff --git a/juypterbook/logo.png b/juypterbook/logo.png
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0f2de37
Binary files /dev/null and b/juypterbook/logo.png differ
diff --git a/juypterbook/methodology.ipynb b/juypterbook/methodology.ipynb
index fdc2ca2..169fee0 100644
--- a/juypterbook/methodology.ipynb
+++ b/juypterbook/methodology.ipynb
@@ -15,16 +15,40 @@
"Our analysis uses PolicyEngine US, an open-source tax-benefit microsimulation model. PolicyEngine provides several advantages for this analysis:\n",
"\n",
"- **Comprehensive Tax Code Implementation**: Complete modeling of federal income tax provisions, including Social Security benefit taxation rules\n",
- "- **Current Data**: Based on the most recent enhanced Current Population Survey data (2024)\n",
"- **Policy Flexibility**: Allows detailed specification of complex policy reforms\n",
"- **Transparency**: Open-source codebase enables verification and replication\n",
- "- **Validation**: Regular benchmarking against official government estimates"
+ "- **Validation**: Regular benchmarking against official government estimates\n",
+ "\n",
+ "### Data Foundation\n",
+ "\n",
+ "The microsimulation is based on the Enhanced Current Population Survey (CPS) for 2024:\n",
+ "\n",
+ "- **Sample Size**: Approximately 20,000 households in the dataset\n",
+ "- **Representative Coverage**: Nationally representative sample weighted to match U.S. population\n",
+ "- **Income Sources**: Detailed information on wages, Social Security benefits, pensions, and other income\n",
+ "- **Demographics**: Age, filing status, state of residence, and other relevant characteristics\n",
+ "- **Enhancement**: Survey data enhanced with statistical matching to capture income and benefit details\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "### Setting Up the Analysis Environment\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This cell loads PolicyEngine's microsimulation framework along with data analysis and visualization tools needed for the budgetary impact calculations."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T16:56:50.037439Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T16:56:50.037439Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.166263Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.166263Z"
+ },
"tags": [
"hide-input"
]
@@ -60,19 +84,21 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
- "## Policy Implementation\n",
- "\n",
- "### Reform Specification\n",
- "\n",
- "Each policy option is implemented through PolicyEngine's reform system, which allows precise specification of tax rate changes, threshold modifications, deduction changes, credit implementation, and phase-in schedules.\n",
+ "### Defining Policy Reform Functions\n",
"\n",
- "Below are the reform functions for each policy option:"
+ "This cell defines the seven policy options as Reform objects that modify specific tax parameters in PolicyEngine's tax calculator."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.166263Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.166263Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.178177Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.178177Z"
+ },
"tags": [
"hide-input"
]
@@ -252,61 +278,65 @@
" }\n",
" return Reform.from_dict(reform_dict, country_id=\"us\")\n",
"\n",
- "print(\"Policy reform functions defined successfully!\")"
+ "def get_option7_reform():\n",
+ " \"\"\"Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction\n",
+ " \n",
+ " Eliminates the $6,000 bonus senior deduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill\n",
+ " that has a 6% phase-out beginning at $75k/$150k for single/joint filers.\n",
+ " The deduction expires in 2029, so there's only impact from 2026-2028.\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " return Reform.from_dict({\n",
+ " \"gov.irs.deductions.senior_deduction.amount\": {\n",
+ " \"2026-01-01.2100-12-31\": 0\n",
+ " }\n",
+ " }, country_id=\"us\")\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
- "## Running Calculations and Generating Results\n",
+ "### Pre-computing Baseline Tax Liabilities\n",
"\n",
- "The following section calculates the budgetary impacts for each policy option using PolicyEngine microsimulation and exports the results to the policy_impacts.md file."
+ "This cell calculates current law (baseline) tax liabilities for 2026-2035 to enable efficient comparison with reform scenarios."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
- "metadata": {
- "tags": [
- "hide-input"
- ]
- },
- "outputs": [],
- "source": [
- "def calculate_yearly_impact(reform, year, baseline_income_tax):\n",
- " \"\"\"\n",
- " Calculate the budgetary impact for a given reform and year.\n",
- " Uses pre-computed baseline to avoid redundant calculations.\n",
- " Returns impact in billions (negative = cost, positive = savings)\n",
- " \"\"\"\n",
- " try:\n",
- " if reform is not None:\n",
- " reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\")\n",
- " reformed_income_tax = reformed.calculate(\"income_tax\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
- " difference_income_tax = baseline_income_tax - reformed_income_tax\n",
- " impact_billions = difference_income_tax.sum() / 1e9\n",
- " else:\n",
- " # Return placeholder value if reform not implemented\n",
- " impact_billions = 0.0\n",
- " \n",
- " return round(impact_billions, 1)\n",
- " except Exception as e:\n",
- " print(f\"Error calculating impact for year {year}: {e}\")\n",
- " return 0.0\n",
- "\n",
- "print(\"Calculation functions defined successfully!\")"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": null,
+ "execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.181626Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T16:57:10.180596Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T16:59:58.367486Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T16:59:58.367486Z"
+ },
"tags": [
- "hide-input"
+ "hide-input",
+ "hide-output"
]
},
- "outputs": [],
+ "outputs": [
+ {
+ "name": "stdout",
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Pre-computing baselines for all years...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2026...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2027...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2028...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2029...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2030...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2031...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2032...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2033...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2034...\n",
+ " Computing baseline for 2035...\n",
+ "Baseline computation complete!\n",
+ "\n"
+ ]
+ }
+ ],
"source": [
"# Pre-compute baselines for all years to avoid redundant calculations\n",
"print(\"Pre-computing baselines for all years...\")\n",
@@ -322,289 +352,137 @@
"print(\"Baseline computation complete!\\n\")"
]
},
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "### Defining the Impact Calculation Function\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This function compares tax collections under each reform to baseline levels to determine the federal revenue impact."
+ ]
+ },
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
+ "execution": {
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2025-09-19T16:59:58.367486Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2025-09-19T16:59:58.367486Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2025-09-19T16:59:58.373280Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2025-09-19T16:59:58.373280Z"
+ },
"tags": [
"hide-input"
]
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
- "# Calculate impacts for each policy option\n",
- "print(\"Calculating policy impacts...\")\n",
- "\n",
- "# Define the 6 policy options we want to analyze\n",
- "policy_options = {\n",
- " 'Option 1': get_option1_reform(),\n",
- " 'Option 2': get_option2_reform(), \n",
- " 'Option 3': get_option3_reform(),\n",
- " 'Option 4': get_option4_reform(),\n",
- " 'Option 5': get_option5_reform(),\n",
- " 'Option 6': get_option6_reform()\n",
- "}\n",
- "\n",
- "# Calculate impacts for each option and year\n",
- "yearly_data = {'Year': years}\n",
- "\n",
- "for option_name, reform in policy_options.items():\n",
- " print(f\"\\nProcessing {option_name}...\")\n",
- " impacts = []\n",
+ "# Function to calculate budgetary impact for a given reform and year\n",
+ "def calculate_budgetary_impact(reform, year, baseline_income_tax):\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " Calculate the budgetary impact of a reform for a specific year\n",
+ " Returns impact in billions of dollars (positive = revenue increase, negative = revenue loss/cost)\n",
+ " \"\"\"\n",
+ " # Create microsimulation with reform\n",
+ " microsim_reform = Microsimulation(\n",
+ " reform=reform,\n",
+ " dataset=\"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5\"\n",
+ " )\n",
" \n",
- " for year in years:\n",
- " print(f\" Year {year}: Computing...\")\n",
- " impact = calculate_yearly_impact(reform, year, baselines[year])\n",
- " impacts.append(impact)\n",
+ " # Calculate reform income tax\n",
+ " reform_income_tax = microsim_reform.calculate(\"income_tax\", map_to=\"household\", period=year)\n",
" \n",
- " yearly_data[option_name] = impacts\n",
- "\n",
- "# Create DataFrame\n",
- "yearly_df = pd.DataFrame(yearly_data)\n",
+ " # Calculate impact (baseline - reform)\n",
+ " # Positive values mean reform reduces tax revenue (cost)\n",
+ " # Negative values mean reform increases tax revenue\n",
+ " # Calculate revenue change (reform - baseline)\n",
+ " # Positive values mean reform increases tax revenue\n",
+ " # Negative values mean reform reduces tax revenue (costs money)\n",
+ " impact = (reform_income_tax.sum() - baseline_income_tax.sum()) / 1e9 # Convert to billions\n",
+ " \n",
+ " return impact\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "### Running the Microsimulation Analysis\n",
"\n",
- "# Calculate 10-year totals\n",
- "totals = {}\n",
- "for col in yearly_df.columns:\n",
- " if col != 'Year':\n",
- " totals[col] = yearly_df[col].sum()\n",
- "\n",
- "print(\"\\nCalculation complete!\")\n",
- "print(\"\\n=== 10-Year Totals (2026-2035) ===\")\n",
- "for option, total in totals.items():\n",
- " print(f\"{option}: {total:.1f} billion\")"
+ "This cell performs the main calculations, running each of the seven reform options through PolicyEngine's microsimulation model for each year from 2026-2035."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 8,
+ "execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"tags": [
"hide-input"
]
},
- "outputs": [
- {
- "name": "stdout",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "Year-by-Year Federal Budgetary Impact (Billions of Dollars)\n"
- ]
- },
- {
- "data": {
- "text/html": [
- "\n",
- "\n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " \n",
- " | \n",
- " Year | \n",
- " Option 1 | \n",
- " Option 2 | \n",
- " Option 3 | \n",
- " Option 4 | \n",
- " Option 5 | \n",
- " Option 6 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " \n",
- " \n",
- " 0 | \n",
- " 2026 | \n",
- " 86.3 | \n",
- " -18.3 | \n",
- " -18.3 | \n",
- " -24.4 | \n",
- " -58.2 | \n",
- " -18.7 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 1 | \n",
- " 2027 | \n",
- " 91.8 | \n",
- " -18.3 | \n",
- " -18.3 | \n",
- " -24.6 | \n",
- " -61.4 | \n",
- " -39.9 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 2 | \n",
- " 2028 | \n",
- " 96.9 | \n",
- " -18.1 | \n",
- " -18.1 | \n",
- " -24.6 | \n",
- " -65.6 | \n",
- " -63.7 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 3 | \n",
- " 2029 | \n",
- " 105.9 | \n",
- " -23.8 | \n",
- " 3.5 | \n",
- " -2.9 | \n",
- " -67.6 | \n",
- " -83.3 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 4 | \n",
- " 2030 | \n",
- " 112.7 | \n",
- " -24.0 | \n",
- " 3.5 | \n",
- " -2.8 | \n",
- " -73.5 | \n",
- " -106.7 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 5 | \n",
- " 2031 | \n",
- " 118.4 | \n",
- " -23.9 | \n",
- " 3.6 | \n",
- " -2.4 | \n",
- " -77.8 | \n",
- " -130.7 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 6 | \n",
- " 2032 | \n",
- " 124.5 | \n",
- " -23.7 | \n",
- " 3.7 | \n",
- " -2.0 | \n",
- " -82.0 | \n",
- " -156.9 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 7 | \n",
- " 2033 | \n",
- " 130.7 | \n",
- " -23.3 | \n",
- " 3.9 | \n",
- " -1.5 | \n",
- " -86.1 | \n",
- " -174.9 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 8 | \n",
- " 2034 | \n",
- " 137.5 | \n",
- " -23.1 | \n",
- " 4.2 | \n",
- " -1.0 | \n",
- " -90.1 | \n",
- " -174.8 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 9 | \n",
- " 2035 | \n",
- " 144.3 | \n",
- " -22.8 | \n",
- " 4.4 | \n",
- " -0.6 | \n",
- " -93.9 | \n",
- " -173.9 | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- " 10 | \n",
- " **2026-2035 Total** | \n",
- " **1149.0** | \n",
- " **-219.3** | \n",
- " **-27.9** | \n",
- " **-86.8** | \n",
- " **-756.2** | \n",
- " **-1123.5** | \n",
- "
\n",
- " \n",
- "
\n",
- "
"
- ],
- "text/plain": [
- " Year Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 \\\n",
- "0 2026 86.3 -18.3 -18.3 -24.4 \n",
- "1 2027 91.8 -18.3 -18.3 -24.6 \n",
- "2 2028 96.9 -18.1 -18.1 -24.6 \n",
- "3 2029 105.9 -23.8 3.5 -2.9 \n",
- "4 2030 112.7 -24.0 3.5 -2.8 \n",
- "5 2031 118.4 -23.9 3.6 -2.4 \n",
- "6 2032 124.5 -23.7 3.7 -2.0 \n",
- "7 2033 130.7 -23.3 3.9 -1.5 \n",
- "8 2034 137.5 -23.1 4.2 -1.0 \n",
- "9 2035 144.3 -22.8 4.4 -0.6 \n",
- "10 **2026-2035 Total** **1149.0** **-219.3** **-27.9** **-86.8** \n",
- "\n",
- " Option 5 Option 6 \n",
- "0 -58.2 -18.7 \n",
- "1 -61.4 -39.9 \n",
- "2 -65.6 -63.7 \n",
- "3 -67.6 -83.3 \n",
- "4 -73.5 -106.7 \n",
- "5 -77.8 -130.7 \n",
- "6 -82.0 -156.9 \n",
- "7 -86.1 -174.9 \n",
- "8 -90.1 -174.8 \n",
- "9 -93.9 -173.9 \n",
- "10 **-756.2** **-1123.5** "
- ]
- },
- "metadata": {},
- "output_type": "display_data"
- }
- ],
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "# Calculate impacts for each reform option\n",
+ "print(\"Calculating budgetary impacts for all policy options...\\n\")\n",
+ "results = {}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Define all reform options\n",
+ "reforms = {\n",
+ " \"Option 1\": get_option1_reform(),\n",
+ " \"Option 2\": get_option2_reform(),\n",
+ " \"Option 3\": get_option3_reform(),\n",
+ " \"Option 4\": get_option4_reform(),\n",
+ " \"Option 5\": get_option5_reform(),\n",
+ " \"Option 6\": get_option6_reform(),\n",
+ " \"Option 7\": get_option7_reform()\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate impacts for each option and year\n",
+ "for option_name, reform in reforms.items():\n",
+ " print(f\"Calculating {option_name}...\")\n",
+ " results[option_name] = []\n",
+ " \n",
+ " for year in years:\n",
+ " impact = calculate_budgetary_impact(reform, year, baselines[year])\n",
+ " results[option_name].append(impact)\n",
+ " print(f\" Year {year}: ${impact:.1f} billion\")\n",
+ " \n",
+ " print(f\" 10-year total: ${sum(results[option_name]):.1f} billion\\n\")\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Prepare data for display\n",
+ "yearly_data = {\n",
+ " \"Year\": years,\n",
+ " \"Option 1\": results[\"Option 1\"],\n",
+ " \"Option 2\": results[\"Option 2\"],\n",
+ " \"Option 3\": results[\"Option 3\"],\n",
+ " \"Option 4\": results[\"Option 4\"],\n",
+ " \"Option 5\": results[\"Option 5\"],\n",
+ " \"Option 6\": results[\"Option 6\"],\n",
+ " \"Option 7\": results[\"Option 7\"]\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "# Calculate 10-year totals\n",
+ "totals = {option: sum(impacts) for option, impacts in results.items()}\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
"source": [
- "# Display the year-by-year table with totals\n",
- "yearly_table_data = []\n",
- "for i, year in enumerate(yearly_data['Year']):\n",
- " row = {'Year': year}\n",
- " for option in ['Option 1', 'Option 2', 'Option 3', 'Option 4', 'Option 5', 'Option 6']:\n",
- " row[option] = f\"{yearly_data[option][i]:.1f}\"\n",
- " yearly_table_data.append(row)\n",
- "\n",
- "# Add totals row\n",
- "totals_row_data = {'Year': '**2026-2035 Total**'}\n",
- "for option in ['Option 1', 'Option 2', 'Option 3', 'Option 4', 'Option 5', 'Option 6']:\n",
- " totals_row_data[option] = f\"**{totals[option]:.1f}**\"\n",
- "yearly_table_data.append(totals_row_data)\n",
- "\n",
- "yearly_table_df = pd.DataFrame(yearly_table_data)\n",
- "\n",
- "print(\"Year-by-Year Federal Budgetary Impact (Billions of Dollars)\")\n",
- "display(yearly_table_df)"
+ "### Writing Results to Policy Impacts Chapter\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This function formats the calculated results into markdown tables and writes them to the policy_impacts.md file for the next chapter of the analysis."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "execution_count": 9,
+ "execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"tags": [
"hide-input"
]
},
- "outputs": [
- {
- "name": "stdout",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "Results successfully written to policy_impacts.md\n"
- ]
- }
- ],
+ "outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Function to write results to policy_impacts.md\n",
"def write_results_to_markdown():\n",
@@ -614,12 +492,13 @@
" \n",
" # Prepare the summary table\n",
" summary_data = [\n",
- " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 1**: Full Repeal\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"${totals['Option 1']:.1f}\"},\n",
- " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 2**: 85% Taxation\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"${totals['Option 2']:.1f}\"},\n",
- " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 3**: 85% with Senior Deduction\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"${totals['Option 3']:.1f}\"},\n",
- " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 4**: Tax Credit ($500)\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"${totals['Option 4']:.1f}\"},\n",
- " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 5**: Roth-Style Swap\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"${totals['Option 5']:.1f}\"},\n",
- " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 6**: Phased Roth-Style\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"${totals['Option 6']:.1f}\"}\n",
+ " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 1**: Full Repeal\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"\\${totals['Option 1']:.1f}\"},\n",
+ " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 2**: 85% Taxation\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"\\${totals['Option 2']:.1f}\"},\n",
+ " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 3**: 85% with Senior Deduction\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"\\${totals['Option 3']:.1f}\"},\n",
+ " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 4**: Tax Credit (\\$500)\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"\\${totals['Option 4']:.1f}\"},\n",
+ " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 5**: Roth-Style Swap\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"\\${totals['Option 5']:.1f}\"},\n",
+ " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 6**: Phased Roth-Style\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"\\${totals['Option 6']:.1f}\"},\n",
+ " {\"Policy Option\": \"**Option 7**: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction\", \"10-Year Impact (Billions)\": f\"\\${totals['Option 7']:.1f}\"}\n",
" ]\n",
" \n",
" # Create markdown tables manually to avoid tabulate dependency issues\n",
@@ -630,31 +509,31 @@
" summary_table += f\"| {item['Policy Option']} | {item['10-Year Impact (Billions)']} |\\n\"\n",
" \n",
" # Year-by-year table with totals\n",
- " yearly_table = \"| Year | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Option 4 | Option 5 | Option 6 |\\n\"\n",
- " yearly_table += \"|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\\n\"\n",
+ " yearly_table = \"| Year | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Option 4 | Option 5 | Option 6 | Option 7 |\\n\"\n",
+ " yearly_table += \"|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\\n\"\n",
" \n",
" # Add yearly data\n",
" for i, year in enumerate(yearly_data['Year']):\n",
- " yearly_table += f\"| {year} | ${yearly_data['Option 1'][i]:.1f} | ${yearly_data['Option 2'][i]:.1f} | ${yearly_data['Option 3'][i]:.1f} | ${yearly_data['Option 4'][i]:.1f} | ${yearly_data['Option 5'][i]:.1f} | ${yearly_data['Option 6'][i]:.1f} |\\n\"\n",
+ " yearly_table += f\"| {year} | \\${yearly_data['Option 1'][i]:.1f} | \\${yearly_data['Option 2'][i]:.1f} | \\${yearly_data['Option 3'][i]:.1f} | \\${yearly_data['Option 4'][i]:.1f} | \\${yearly_data['Option 5'][i]:.1f} | \\${yearly_data['Option 6'][i]:.1f} | \\${yearly_data['Option 7'][i]:.1f} |\\n\"\n",
" \n",
" # Add totals row\n",
- " yearly_table += f\"| **2026-2035 Total** | **${totals['Option 1']:.1f}** | **${totals['Option 2']:.1f}** | **${totals['Option 3']:.1f}** | **${totals['Option 4']:.1f}** | **${totals['Option 5']:.1f}** | **${totals['Option 6']:.1f}** |\\n\"\n",
+ " yearly_table += f\"| **2026-2035 Total** | **\\${totals['Option 1']:.1f}** | **\\${totals['Option 2']:.1f}** | **\\${totals['Option 3']:.1f}** | **\\${totals['Option 4']:.1f}** | **\\${totals['Option 5']:.1f}** | **\\${totals['Option 6']:.1f}** | **\\${totals['Option 7']:.1f}** |\\n\"\n",
" \n",
" # Determine if values are positive or negative for proper description\n",
" def format_impact(value):\n",
" if value < 0:\n",
- " return f\"-${abs(value):.1f} billion\"\n",
+ " return f\"-\\${abs(value):.1f} billion\"\n",
" else:\n",
- " return f\"${value:.1f} billion\"\n",
+ " return f\"\\${value:.1f} billion\"\n",
" \n",
" # Write the complete markdown file\n",
" content = f\"\"\"# Policy Impacts\n",
"\n",
- "This chapter presents the quantitative results of the analysis of six Social Security benefit taxation reform options. All estimates represent changes in federal tax revenue over the 10-year period 2026-2035, measured in billions of dollars. Negative values indicate revenue decreases, while positive values indicate revenue increases.\n",
+ "This chapter presents the quantitative results of the analysis of seven Social Security benefit taxation reform options. All estimates represent changes in federal tax revenue over the 10-year period 2026-2035, measured in billions of dollars. Positive values indicate revenue increases (deficit reducing), while negative values indicate revenue losses (deficit increasing).\n",
"\n",
"## Summary of 10-Year Budgetary Impacts\n",
"\n",
- "The microsimulation analysis shows the following budgetary impacts across the six policy options:\n",
+ "The microsimulation analysis shows the following budgetary impacts across the seven policy options:\n",
"\n",
"{summary_table}\n",
"\n",
@@ -670,93 +549,102 @@
"\n",
"**10-Year Impact: {format_impact(totals['Option 1'])}**\n",
"\n",
- "This option eliminates all federal income taxation of Social Security benefits. The revenue impact changes over time due to:\n",
- "- Changes in the number of Social Security beneficiaries\n",
- "- Changes in benefit levels\n",
+ "This option eliminates all federal income taxation of Social Security benefits. The revenue loss increases over time due to:\n",
+ "- Growing number of Social Security beneficiaries\n",
+ "- Increasing benefit levels\n",
"- Expiration of senior deduction in 2029\n",
"\n",
"### Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits\n",
"\n",
"**10-Year Impact: {format_impact(totals['Option 2'])}**\n",
"\n",
- "This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits for all recipients. The results show that expanding taxation to all beneficiaries at 85% does not offset the revenue change from eliminating income thresholds under the current senior deduction structure.\n",
+ "This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits for all recipients. The results show that expanding taxation to all beneficiaries generates additional revenue, with the impact changing after 2028 when the senior deduction expires.\n",
"\n",
"### Option 3: 85% Taxation with Permanent Senior Deduction Extension\n",
"\n",
"**10-Year Impact: {format_impact(totals['Option 3'])}**\n",
"\n",
- "This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits while permanently extending the senior deduction. The change after 2028 reflects the interaction between expanded benefit taxation and the permanent senior deduction.\n",
+ "This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits while permanently extending the senior deduction. The revenue turns negative after 2028 when the permanent extension of the senior deduction offsets the gains from expanded benefit taxation.\n",
"\n",
- "### Option 4: Social Security Tax Credit System ($500 Credit)\n",
+ "### Option 4: Social Security Tax Credit System (\\$500 Credit)\n",
"\n",
"**10-Year Impact: {format_impact(totals['Option 4'])}**\n",
"\n",
- "This option implements a $500 tax credit while expanding the taxation base to 85% of all benefits. The change after 2028 reflects the interaction between the credit system and the expiration of the senior deduction.\n",
+ "This option implements a \\$500 tax credit while expanding the taxation base to 85% of all benefits. The revenue gain is reduced compared to Option 2 due to the credit offsetting some of the additional tax burden.\n",
"\n",
"### Option 5: Roth-Style Swap\n",
"\n",
"**10-Year Impact: {format_impact(totals['Option 5'])}**\n",
"\n",
- "This option replaces benefit taxation with employer payroll contribution taxation. The revenue impact changes over time as the difference between benefit taxation revenue and employer contribution taxation revenue evolves.\n",
+ "This option replaces benefit taxation with employer payroll contribution taxation. The positive revenue impact reflects the broader base of taxing employer contributions compared to benefit taxation.\n",
"\n",
"### Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap\n",
"\n",
"**10-Year Impact: {format_impact(totals['Option 6'])}**\n",
"\n",
"This option implements a phased transition that includes:\n",
- "- Gradual reduction of benefit taxation revenue\n",
- "- Gradual increase of employer contribution taxation\n",
- "- Extended transition period\n",
+ "- Gradual increase in employer contribution taxation\n",
+ "- Gradual reduction of benefit taxation starting in 2029\n",
+ "- Results in the highest revenue gain among all options\n",
+ "\n",
+ "### Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction\n",
+ "\n",
+ "**10-Year Impact: {format_impact(totals['Option 7'])}**\n",
+ "\n",
+ "This option eliminates the \\$6,000 bonus senior deduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill starting in 2026. The revenue increase reflects:\n",
+ "- Elimination of the deduction for eligible taxpayers aged 65 and older\n",
+ "- Phase-out effects for higher-income taxpayers (6% phase-out starting at \\$75k single/\\$150k joint)\n",
+ "- Impact limited to 2026-2028 as the deduction expires in 2029 under current law\n",
+ "- Revenue pattern shows impact only in years when the deduction would have been available\n",
"\n",
"## Key Findings\n",
"\n",
"### Revenue Impact Ranking\n",
"\n",
- "From smallest to largest absolute revenue impact:\n",
- "1. **Option 3**: {format_impact(totals['Option 3'])}\n",
- "2. **Option 4**: {format_impact(totals['Option 4'])}\n",
- "3. **Option 2**: {format_impact(totals['Option 2'])}\n",
- "4. **Option 5**: {format_impact(totals['Option 5'])}\n",
- "5. **Option 1**: {format_impact(totals['Option 1'])}\n",
- "6. **Option 6**: {format_impact(totals['Option 6'])}\n",
+ "From largest revenue loss to largest revenue gain:\n",
+ "1. **Option 1**: {format_impact(totals['Option 1'])} (largest cost)\n",
+ "2. **Option 3**: {format_impact(totals['Option 3'])}\n",
+ "3. **Option 7**: {format_impact(totals['Option 7'])}\n",
+ "4. **Option 4**: {format_impact(totals['Option 4'])}\n",
+ "5. **Option 2**: {format_impact(totals['Option 2'])}\n",
+ "6. **Option 5**: {format_impact(totals['Option 5'])}\n",
+ "7. **Option 6**: {format_impact(totals['Option 6'])} (largest revenue gain)\n",
"\n",
"### Impact of Senior Deduction Expiration\n",
"\n",
- "The scheduled 2028 expiration of the senior deduction affects the revenue patterns of several options:\n",
+ "The scheduled 2028 expiration of the bonus senior deduction affects the revenue patterns of several options:\n",
"\n",
- "- **Options 1, 5, 6**: Revenue impacts change after 2028\n",
- "- **Option 2**: Revenue pattern changes after 2028\n",
- "- **Option 3**: Different pattern due to permanent extension\n",
- "- **Option 4**: Credit interacts with deduction expiration\n",
+ "- **Options 1, 2, 4, 5, 6**: Revenue impacts change after 2028 due to deduction expiration\n",
+ "- **Option 3**: Shows negative revenue after 2028 due to permanent extension\n",
+ "- **Option 7**: Only has impact 2026-2028 since it eliminates the deduction before it would expire\n",
"\n",
"### Policy Design Observations\n",
"\n",
- "1. **Tax Credit**: The $500 tax credit option combines a credit with expanded benefit taxation.\n",
- "\n",
- "2. **Roth-Style Swap**: The analysis shows different revenue impacts between benefit taxation and employer payroll contribution taxation.\n",
- "\n",
- "3. **Phase-in Effects**: Gradual implementation (Option 6) produces different revenue patterns than immediate implementation (Option 5).\n",
- "\n",
- "4. **Senior Deduction**: The permanent senior deduction extension (Option 3) affects the net revenue impact of expanded benefit taxation.\n",
+ "1. **Full Repeal**: Option 1 results in significant revenue loss of over \\$1.1 trillion\n",
+ "2. **Universal Taxation**: Option 2 generates modest revenue gains by taxing all benefits at 85%\n",
+ "3. **Tax Credit**: The \\$500 credit in Option 4 reduces revenue gains compared to Option 2\n",
+ "4. **Roth-Style Approaches**: Options 5 and 6 generate the largest revenue gains through employer contribution taxation\n",
+ "5. **Bonus Deduction Elimination**: Option 7 provides temporary revenue only during 2026-2028\n",
"\n",
"## Distributional Considerations\n",
"\n",
"The analysis focuses on aggregate budgetary impacts. The distributional effects vary by option:\n",
"\n",
- "- **Option 1**: Affects all current Social Security recipients\n",
- "- **Options 2 & 3**: Changes tax treatment for beneficiaries currently below thresholds\n",
- "- **Option 4**: Implements a credit for Social Security recipients\n",
- "- **Options 5 & 6**: Changes the tax treatment between retirees and current workers\n",
+ "- **Option 1**: Benefits all current Social Security recipients\n",
+ "- **Options 2 & 3**: Increases taxes on beneficiaries currently below thresholds\n",
+ "- **Option 4**: Provides partial relief through the \\$500 credit\n",
+ "- **Options 5 & 6**: Shifts tax burden from retirees to current workers\n",
+ "- **Option 7**: Affects elderly taxpayers eligible for the bonus senior deduction\n",
"\n",
"## Methodology Notes\n",
"\n",
- "These estimates are based on static microsimulation analysis and do not account for:\n",
+ "These estimates are based on static microsimulation analysis using PolicyEngine and do not account for:\n",
"- Behavioral responses to tax changes\n",
"- Economic growth effects\n",
"- Administrative implementation costs\n",
"- State tax interactions\n",
"\n",
- "The results are presented for comparison with estimates from other analytical sources in the next chapter.\"\"\"\n",
+ "The results represent the direct federal revenue impacts of each reform option.\"\"\"\n",
" \n",
" # Write to file\n",
" with open('policy_impacts.md', 'w') as f:\n",
@@ -768,117 +656,6 @@
"# Execute the function to write results\n",
"markdown_content = write_results_to_markdown()"
]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Calculation Methodology\n",
- "\n",
- "### Annual Impact Estimation\n",
- "\n",
- "For each policy option and year (2026-2035), we calculate:\n",
- "\n",
- "1. **Baseline Revenue**: Federal income tax revenue under current law\n",
- "2. **Reform Revenue**: Federal income tax revenue under the policy reform\n",
- "3. **Budgetary Impact**: Difference between baseline and reform revenue\n",
- "\n",
- "The impact is calculated as: `Impact = Baseline Revenue - Reform Revenue`\n",
- "\n",
- "- **Negative values** indicate costs (revenue loss)\n",
- "- **Positive values** indicate savings (revenue gain)"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Data Foundation\n",
- "\n",
- "### Enhanced Current Population Survey\n",
- "\n",
- "The microsimulation is based on the Enhanced Current Population Survey (CPS) for 2024:\n",
- "\n",
- "- **Sample Size**: Approximately 160,000 individuals in 60,000 households\n",
- "- **Representative Coverage**: Nationally representative sample weighted to match U.S. population\n",
- "- **Income Sources**: Detailed information on wages, Social Security benefits, pensions, and other income\n",
- "- **Demographics**: Age, filing status, state of residence, and other relevant characteristics\n",
- "- **Enhancement**: Survey data enhanced with statistical matching to capture income and benefit details\n",
- "\n",
- "### Tax Calculator Engine\n",
- "\n",
- "PolicyEngine's tax calculator implements current law provisions including:\n",
- "\n",
- "- Federal income tax brackets and rates\n",
- "- Standard and itemized deductions\n",
- "- Social Security benefit taxation rules (current two-tier system)\n",
- "- Senior deduction provisions\n",
- "- Credits and other tax preferences\n",
- "- Alternative Minimum Tax calculations"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Technical Specifications\n",
- "\n",
- "### Software Environment\n",
- "\n",
- "- **PolicyEngine Version**: Latest stable release (2024)\n",
- "- **Python Version**: 3.10+\n",
- "- **Key Dependencies**: NumPy, Pandas for data processing\n",
- "- **Computational Resources**: Analysis performed on standard computing environment\n",
- "\n",
- "### Data Processing\n",
- "\n",
- "The analysis workflow includes:\n",
- "\n",
- "1. **Baseline Calculation**: Pre-compute baseline tax liabilities for all years\n",
- "2. **Reform Implementation**: Apply policy changes through PolicyEngine reform system\n",
- "3. **Impact Calculation**: Calculate difference between reform and baseline scenarios\n",
- "4. **Quality Assurance**: Validate results against known benchmarks\n",
- "5. **Output Generation**: Format results for analysis and presentation"
- ]
- },
- {
- "cell_type": "markdown",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "## Limitations and Assumptions\n",
- "\n",
- "### Static Analysis\n",
- "\n",
- "Our analysis uses static microsimulation, meaning:\n",
- "- No behavioral responses to tax changes are modeled\n",
- "- Labor supply, retirement timing, and benefit claiming decisions held constant\n",
- "- Savings and investment responses not captured\n",
- "- Economic growth effects not included\n",
- "\n",
- "### Data Limitations\n",
- "\n",
- "The Enhanced CPS data has several limitations:\n",
- "- Survey data may underrepresent very high-income households\n",
- "- Some income sources may be underreported\n",
- "- Administrative data matching not available for all variables\n",
- "- Sample size limits precision for small subgroups\n",
- "\n",
- "### Policy Implementation\n",
- "\n",
- "Our policy implementations make several assumptions:\n",
- "- Full compliance with new tax provisions\n",
- "- No administrative costs or implementation delays\n",
- "- Perfect information and understanding by taxpayers\n",
- "- No interaction with state tax systems\n",
- "\n",
- "### Economic Assumptions\n",
- "\n",
- "The analysis assumes:\n",
- "- Current law economic assumptions (inflation, wage growth)\n",
- "- No macroeconomic feedback effects from policy changes\n",
- "- Stable demographic and benefit program parameters\n",
- "- No changes to Social Security benefit levels or eligibility"
- ]
}
],
"metadata": {
@@ -888,7 +665,15 @@
"name": "python3"
},
"language_info": {
+ "codemirror_mode": {
+ "name": "ipython",
+ "version": 3
+ },
+ "file_extension": ".py",
+ "mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
+ "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+ "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.12.10"
}
},
diff --git a/juypterbook/policy-impacts.md b/juypterbook/policy-impacts.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a013abc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/policy-impacts.md
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+# Policy Impacts
+
+This chapter presents the quantitative results of the analysis of seven Social Security benefit taxation reform options. All estimates represent changes in federal tax revenue over the 10-year period 2026-2035, measured in billions of dollars. Positive values indicate revenue increases (deficit reducing), while negative values indicate revenue losses (deficit increasing).
+
+## Summary of 10-Year Budgetary Impacts
+
+The microsimulation analysis shows the following budgetary impacts across the seven policy options:
+
+| Policy Option | 10-Year Impact (Billions) |
+|---|---|
+| **Option 1**: Full Repeal | -\$1,149.1 |
+| **Option 2**: 85% Taxation | \$219.3 |
+| **Option 3**: 85% with Senior Deduction | \$27.8 |
+| **Option 4**: Tax Credit (\$500) | \$86.8 |
+| **Option 5**: Roth-Style Swap | \$756.2 |
+| **Option 6**: Phased Roth-Style | \$1,123.5 |
+| **Option 7**: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction | \$64.2 |
+
+📊 Download Summary CSV
+
+
+## Year-by-Year Net Effect on Tax Revenues (2026-2035)
+
+**Net Effect on Tax Revenues by Year (Billions of Dollars)**
+
+| | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | **10-Year Total** |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **Option 1** | -86.3 | -91.8 | -96.9 | -105.9 | -112.7 | -118.4 | -124.9 | -131.0 | -137.5 | -144.3 | **-1,149.1** |
+| **Option 2** | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.1 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 23.9 | 23.8 | 23.5 | 23.1 | 22.8 | **219.3** |
+| **Option 3** | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.6 | -3.8 | -4.0 | -4.2 | -4.4 | **27.8** |
+| **Option 4** | 24.4 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | **86.8** |
+| **Option 5** | 58.2 | 61.4 | 65.6 | 67.6 | 73.5 | 77.8 | 82.4 | 86.9 | 90.1 | 93.9 | **756.2** |
+| **Option 6** | 18.7 | 39.9 | 63.7 | 83.3 | 106.7 | 130.7 | 154.9 | 174.9 | 174.8 | 173.9 | **1,123.5** |
+| **Option 7** | 21.0 | 21.5 | 21.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | **64.2** |
+
+📊 Download Yearly Data CSV
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/policy-options.md b/juypterbook/policy-options.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..be77d7e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/policy-options.md
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
+# Policy Options
+
+This chapter describes the seven Social Security benefit taxation reform options analyzed in this study. Each option represents a different approach to modifying the current two-tier taxation system, with varying implications for revenue generation, taxpayer burden, and trust fund solvency.
+
+## Current Law Baseline
+
+Under current law, the taxation of Social Security benefits follows a two-tier system based on "combined income," which equals adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of Social Security benefits {cite}`taxfoundation2024trump`.
+
+**Current Taxation Structure:**
+
+Taxpayers who earn less than \$25,000 (single filers) or \$32,000 (joint filers) in combined income pay no tax on their benefits. Households earning between those thresholds and up to \$34,000 (single filers) or \$44,000 (joint filers) pay tax on up to 50 percent of their benefits. Above those levels, up to 85 percent of benefits are taxed.
+
+**Revenue Allocation:**
+
+Income tax revenue collected from Social Security benefits is allocated to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds. The revenue from taxation of up to 50 percent of benefits is dedicated to the Social Security Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust fund, while the remainder goes to the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund {cite}`ssa2023trustees`.
+
+Additionally, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act included a "bonus senior deduction" of \$6,000 for taxpayers aged 65 and older, which expires at the end of 2028 under current law.
+
+## Option 1: Full Repeal of Taxation of Social Security Benefits
+
+**Start Date:** 2026
+
+**Policy Description:** Taxation of Social Security benefits is permanently repealed beginning in 2026.
+
+**Revenue Allocation Impact:** The effect on revenues to the OASDI and HI trust funds will be allocated as per current law. In other words, the revenue that would have been earned by the respective trust funds under current law is the revenue that they will lose under this option.
+
+```{dropdown} Option 1 Reform Code
+```python
+def get_option1_reform():
+ """Option 1: Full Repeal of Social Security Benefits Taxation"""
+ return Reform.from_dict({
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ }
+ }, country_id="us")
+```
+
+**Reform Explanation:** This reform sets both the base and additional Social Security taxability rates to 0%, effectively eliminating all federal income taxation of Social Security benefits starting in 2026. The policy parameters `taxability.rate.base` and `taxability.rate.additional` control the percentage of benefits subject to taxation under the current two-tier system.
+
+## Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits
+
+**Start Date:** 2026
+
+**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, 85% of all Social Security benefits are included in taxable income.
+
+**Revenue Allocation:** The additional revenue from taxation of benefits (TOB) will be allocated to the OASDI and HI trust funds in a way that maintains the current projected shares of TOB revenue earned by the OASI, DI, and HI trust funds.
+
+```{dropdown} Option 2 Reform Code
+```python
+def get_option2_reform():
+ """Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits"""
+ return Reform.from_dict({
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.85
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ }
+ }, country_id="us")
+```
+
+**Reform Explanation:** This reform sets the base taxability rate to 85% and eliminates all income thresholds by setting them to \$0 for all filing statuses. This means 85% of all Social Security benefits become taxable income regardless of the recipient's income level, effectively eliminating the current two-tier threshold system.
+
+## Option 3: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits and Permanent Extension of the Bonus Senior Deduction
+
+**Start Date:** 2026
+
+**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, 85% of all Social Security benefits are included in taxable income. The bonus senior deduction is permanently extended past 2028.
+
+**Revenue Allocation:** We want to see the full budget estimates for this proposal before deciding how the revenue raised should be allocated across the trust funds because extending the bonus senior deduction will have negative on-budget effects that we will want to incorporate into our decision. Please let us know if you can easily allocate the costs to the general fund onto the trust funds in your model.
+
+```{dropdown} Option 3 Reform Code
+```python
+def get_option3_reform():
+ """Option 3: 85% Taxation with Permanent Senior Deduction Extension"""
+ return Reform.from_dict({
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.85
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.senior_deduction_extension.applies": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": True
+ }
+ }, country_id="us")
+```
+
+**Reform Explanation:** This reform combines the 85% taxation approach from Option 2 with a permanent extension of the bonus senior deduction. The parameter `senior_deduction_extension.applies` ensures the \$6,000 senior deduction continues beyond its scheduled 2028 expiration, partially offsetting the expanded taxation for older taxpayers.
+
+## Option 4: Replace the Bonus Senior Deduction with a $500 Nonrefundable Tax Credit and Tax 85% of All Social Security Benefits
+
+**Start Date:** 2026
+
+**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, 85% of all Social Security benefits are included in taxable income. The bonus senior deduction is repealed in 2026 and replaced in the same year by a \$500 nonrefundable tax credit made available to all Social Security beneficiaries. The credit can only be applied against taxes owed on Social Security benefits. For the credit's purpose, taxes owed on Social Security will be determined by considering Social Security benefits as a person's "last" income. So if their marginal tax rate is 37%, their last dollar of taxable Social Security income will increase taxes owed by 37 cents.
+
+**Illustrative Example:** An individual with \$5,000 in Social Security income and \$10,000 in other income facing a 5% tax on income below \$10k, a 10% tax on income above that amount, and a \$500 nonrefundable credit.
+
+| Taxable Social Security Income | Other Income | Taxes for Determining Credit | Maximum Credit Amount | Credit Received | Taxes Before Credit | Taxes After Credit |
+|-------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------|---------------------|-----------------|--------------------|--------------------|
+| \$5,000 × 85% = \$4,250 | \$10,000 | \$4,250 × 10% = \$425 | \$500 | MIN(425, 500) = \$425 | \$925 | \$500 |
+
+**Credit Amount:** The credit is set at \$500 per beneficiary, designed to partially offset the expanded taxation while improving trust fund solvency.
+
+**Revenue Allocation:** The additional revenue raised will be allocated to the OASDI and HI trust funds in a way that maintains the current projected shares of contributions from TOB revenue to the OASI, DI, and HI trust funds.
+
+```{dropdown} Option 4 Reform Code
+```python
+def get_option4_reform():
+ """Option 4: Social Security Tax Credit System (\$500 Credit)"""
+ return Reform.from_dict({
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0.85
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.JOINT": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SINGLE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SEPARATE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.threshold.base.main.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.in_effect": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": True
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.JOINT": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 500
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SINGLE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 500
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SEPARATE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 500
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.SURVIVING_SPOUSE": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 500
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.ss_credit.amount.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 500
+ },
+ "gov.irs.deductions.senior_deduction.amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ }
+ }, country_id="us")
+```
+
+**Reform Explanation:** This reform implements 85% taxation like Options 2-3 but replaces the bonus senior deduction with a \$500 nonrefundable tax credit. The `ss_credit.in_effect` parameter activates the credit system, `ss_credit.amount` sets the credit value for each filing status, and `senior_deduction.amount: 0` eliminates the bonus senior deduction. The credit can only offset taxes owed on Social Security benefits.
+
+## Option 5: Roth-Style Swap: Substitute Income Taxation of Employer Payroll Contributions for Income Taxation of Social Security Benefits
+
+**Start Date:** 2026
+
+**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, all employer payroll contributions are included in taxable income and all Social Security benefits are excluded from taxable income.
+
+**Revenue Allocation:** Revenue from income taxation of employer Social Security contributions are allocated to the OASDI trust funds. Revenue from income taxation of Medicare contributions are allocated to the HI trust fund. The revenue that would've been earned by the OASDI and HI trust fund from TOB is the revenue that they will lose from the end of TOB.
+
+```{dropdown} Option 5 Reform Code
+```python
+def get_option5_reform():
+ """Option 5: Roth-Style Swap"""
+ return Reform.from_dict({
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.in_effect": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": True
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.percentage": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 1.0
+ }
+ }, country_id="us")
+```
+
+**Reform Explanation:** This reform implements a "Roth-style swap" by eliminating Social Security benefit taxation (setting rates to 0%) while making employer payroll contributions (7.65% Social Security + Medicare) fully taxable as employee income. The `tax_employer_payroll_tax.percentage: 1.0` parameter means 100% of employer payroll tax contributions become taxable income to the employee.
+
+## Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap
+
+**Start Date:** 2026
+
+**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, all employer payroll contributions are phased into taxable income by 1 percentage point per year until the full 7.65 percent employer contribution is taxable.
+
+Starting in 2029, the current formula for income taxation of Social Security benefits is phased down by 5 percentage points per year (e.g., 2028: 50/85; 2029: 45/80; 2030: 40/75…, 2038: 0/35; 2039: 0/30…, 2045: 0/0)
+
+**Revenue Allocation During Phase-In:** During the phase-in, the revenue raised from income taxation of employer contributions is allocated to the OASDI trust funds until the contributions included in taxable income exceed the amount contributed to Social Security (6.2%). So, for example, when just 1pp of employer contributions are taxable, the full amount of revenue raised is directed to the OASDI trust fund. When 7pp are included 6.2/7 percent of the revenue is directed to the OASDI trust funds and 0.8/7 percent are directed to the HI trust fund.
+
+When the policy is fully phased in, the revenues are allocated in the same manner as Option 5.
+
+The revenue loss from the phase-out of TOB is allocated to the OASDI and HI trust funds in a way that maintains the current projected shares of TOB revenue earned by the OASI, DI, and HI trust funds.
+
+```{dropdown} Option 6 Reform Code
+```python
+def get_option6_reform():
+ """Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap"""
+ reform_dict = {
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.in_effect": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": True
+ },
+ "gov.contrib.crfb.tax_employer_payroll_tax.percentage": {
+ "2026-01-01.2026-12-31": 0.1307,
+ "2027-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.2614,
+ "2028-01-01.2028-12-31": 0.3922,
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.5229,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.6536,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.7843,
+ "2032-01-01.2032-12-31": 0.9150,
+ "2033-01-01.2100-12-31": 1.0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.base": {
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.45,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.40,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.35,
+ "2032-01-01.2032-12-31": 0.30,
+ "2033-01-01.2033-12-31": 0.25,
+ "2034-01-01.2034-12-31": 0.20,
+ "2035-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.15,
+ "2036-01-01.2036-12-31": 0.10,
+ "2037-01-01.2037-12-31": 0.05,
+ "2038-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ },
+ "gov.irs.social_security.taxability.rate.additional": {
+ "2029-01-01.2029-12-31": 0.80,
+ "2030-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.75,
+ "2031-01-01.2031-12-31": 0.70,
+ "2032-01-01.2032-12-31": 0.65,
+ "2033-01-01.2033-12-31": 0.60,
+ "2034-01-01.2034-12-31": 0.55,
+ "2035-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.50,
+ "2036-01-01.2036-12-31": 0.45,
+ "2037-01-01.2037-12-31": 0.40,
+ "2038-01-01.2038-12-31": 0.35,
+ "2039-01-01.2039-12-31": 0.30,
+ "2040-01-01.2040-12-31": 0.25,
+ "2041-01-01.2041-12-31": 0.20,
+ "2042-01-01.2042-12-31": 0.15,
+ "2043-01-01.2043-12-31": 0.10,
+ "2044-01-01.2044-12-31": 0.05,
+ "2045-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ }
+ }
+ return Reform.from_dict(reform_dict, country_id="us")
+```
+
+**Reform Explanation:** This complex phased reform gradually increases employer payroll tax inclusion (starting at 13.07% in 2026, reaching 100% by 2033) while simultaneously phasing down Social Security benefit taxation rates starting in 2029. The base rate decreases from current law (50%) to 45% in 2029, continuing down to 0% by 2038, while the additional rate phases from 85% down to 0% by 2045. This creates a gradual transition from taxing benefits to taxing employer contributions.
+
+## Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction
+
+**Start Date:** 2026
+
+**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, the bonus senior deduction is eliminated.
+
+**Revenue Allocation:** The additional revenue generated from eliminating the bonus senior deduction is directed to general revenues, not specifically allocated to the OASDI or HI trust funds.
+
+```{dropdown} Option 7 Reform Code
+```python
+def get_option7_reform():
+ """Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction
+
+ Eliminates the $6,000 bonus senior deduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill
+ that has a 6% phase-out beginning at $75k/$150k for single/joint filers.
+ The deduction expires in 2029, so there's only impact from 2026-2028.
+ """
+ return Reform.from_dict({
+ "gov.irs.deductions.senior_deduction.amount": {
+ "2026-01-01.2100-12-31": 0
+ }
+ }, country_id="us")
+```
+
+**Reform Explanation:** This reform eliminates the bonus senior deduction by setting `senior_deduction.amount` to 0 starting in 2026. This affects elderly taxpayers who would otherwise receive the \$6,000 deduction (subject to phase-out), increasing their taxable income. Since the deduction is already scheduled to expire in 2029 under current law, there is only a revenue impact for 2026-2028.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/policy_impacts.md b/juypterbook/policy_impacts.md
deleted file mode 100644
index 1db19aa..0000000
--- a/juypterbook/policy_impacts.md
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,130 +0,0 @@
-# Policy Impacts
-
-This chapter presents the quantitative results of the analysis of six Social Security benefit taxation reform options. All estimates represent changes in federal tax revenue over the 10-year period 2026-2035, measured in billions of dollars. Negative values indicate revenue decreases, while positive values indicate revenue increases.
-
-## Summary of 10-Year Budgetary Impacts
-
-The microsimulation analysis shows the following budgetary impacts across the six policy options:
-
-| Policy Option | 10-Year Impact (Billions) |
-|---|---|
-| **Option 1**: Full Repeal | $1149.0 |
-| **Option 2**: 85% Taxation | $-219.3 |
-| **Option 3**: 85% with Senior Deduction | $-27.9 |
-| **Option 4**: Tax Credit ($500) | $-86.8 |
-| **Option 5**: Roth-Style Swap | $-756.2 |
-| **Option 6**: Phased Roth-Style | $-1123.5 |
-
-
-## Year-by-Year Federal Budgetary Impact (2026-2035)
-
-**Federal Budgetary Impact by Year (Billions of Dollars)**
-
-| Year | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Option 4 | Option 5 | Option 6 |
-|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
-| 2026 | $86.3 | $-18.3 | $-18.3 | $-24.4 | $-58.2 | $-18.7 |
-| 2027 | $91.8 | $-18.3 | $-18.3 | $-24.6 | $-61.4 | $-39.9 |
-| 2028 | $96.9 | $-18.1 | $-18.1 | $-24.6 | $-65.6 | $-63.7 |
-| 2029 | $105.9 | $-23.8 | $3.5 | $-2.9 | $-67.6 | $-83.3 |
-| 2030 | $112.7 | $-24.0 | $3.5 | $-2.8 | $-73.5 | $-106.7 |
-| 2031 | $118.4 | $-23.9 | $3.6 | $-2.4 | $-77.8 | $-130.7 |
-| 2032 | $124.5 | $-23.7 | $3.7 | $-2.0 | $-82.0 | $-156.9 |
-| 2033 | $130.7 | $-23.3 | $3.9 | $-1.5 | $-86.1 | $-174.9 |
-| 2034 | $137.5 | $-23.1 | $4.2 | $-1.0 | $-90.1 | $-174.8 |
-| 2035 | $144.3 | $-22.8 | $4.4 | $-0.6 | $-93.9 | $-173.9 |
-| **2026-2035 Total** | **$1149.0** | **$-219.3** | **$-27.9** | **$-86.8** | **$-756.2** | **$-1123.5** |
-
-
-## Detailed Results by Policy Option
-
-### Option 1: Full Repeal of Social Security Benefits Taxation
-
-**10-Year Impact: $1149.0 billion**
-
-This option eliminates all federal income taxation of Social Security benefits. The revenue impact changes over time due to:
-- Changes in the number of Social Security beneficiaries
-- Changes in benefit levels
-- Expiration of senior deduction in 2029
-
-### Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits
-
-**10-Year Impact: -$219.3 billion**
-
-This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits for all recipients. The results show that expanding taxation to all beneficiaries at 85% does not offset the revenue change from eliminating income thresholds under the current senior deduction structure.
-
-### Option 3: 85% Taxation with Permanent Senior Deduction Extension
-
-**10-Year Impact: -$27.9 billion**
-
-This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits while permanently extending the senior deduction. The change after 2028 reflects the interaction between expanded benefit taxation and the permanent senior deduction.
-
-### Option 4: Social Security Tax Credit System ($500 Credit)
-
-**10-Year Impact: -$86.8 billion**
-
-This option implements a $500 tax credit while expanding the taxation base to 85% of all benefits. The change after 2028 reflects the interaction between the credit system and the expiration of the senior deduction.
-
-### Option 5: Roth-Style Swap
-
-**10-Year Impact: -$756.2 billion**
-
-This option replaces benefit taxation with employer payroll contribution taxation. The revenue impact changes over time as the difference between benefit taxation revenue and employer contribution taxation revenue evolves.
-
-### Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap
-
-**10-Year Impact: -$1123.5 billion**
-
-This option implements a phased transition that includes:
-- Gradual reduction of benefit taxation revenue
-- Gradual increase of employer contribution taxation
-- Extended transition period
-
-## Key Findings
-
-### Revenue Impact Ranking
-
-From smallest to largest absolute revenue impact:
-1. **Option 3**: -$27.9 billion
-2. **Option 4**: -$86.8 billion
-3. **Option 2**: -$219.3 billion
-4. **Option 5**: -$756.2 billion
-5. **Option 1**: $1149.0 billion
-6. **Option 6**: -$1123.5 billion
-
-### Impact of Senior Deduction Expiration
-
-The scheduled 2028 expiration of the senior deduction affects the revenue patterns of several options:
-
-- **Options 1, 5, 6**: Revenue impacts change after 2028
-- **Option 2**: Revenue pattern changes after 2028
-- **Option 3**: Different pattern due to permanent extension
-- **Option 4**: Credit interacts with deduction expiration
-
-### Policy Design Observations
-
-1. **Tax Credit**: The $500 tax credit option combines a credit with expanded benefit taxation.
-
-2. **Roth-Style Swap**: The analysis shows different revenue impacts between benefit taxation and employer payroll contribution taxation.
-
-3. **Phase-in Effects**: Gradual implementation (Option 6) produces different revenue patterns than immediate implementation (Option 5).
-
-4. **Senior Deduction**: The permanent senior deduction extension (Option 3) affects the net revenue impact of expanded benefit taxation.
-
-## Distributional Considerations
-
-The analysis focuses on aggregate budgetary impacts. The distributional effects vary by option:
-
-- **Option 1**: Affects all current Social Security recipients
-- **Options 2 & 3**: Changes tax treatment for beneficiaries currently below thresholds
-- **Option 4**: Implements a credit for Social Security recipients
-- **Options 5 & 6**: Changes the tax treatment between retirees and current workers
-
-## Methodology Notes
-
-These estimates are based on static microsimulation analysis and do not account for:
-- Behavioral responses to tax changes
-- Economic growth effects
-- Administrative implementation costs
-- State tax interactions
-
-The results are presented for comparison with estimates from other analytical sources in the next chapter.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/policy_options.md b/juypterbook/policy_options.md
deleted file mode 100644
index 5ae9214..0000000
--- a/juypterbook/policy_options.md
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,107 +0,0 @@
-# Policy Options
-
-This chapter describes the six Social Security benefit taxation reform options analyzed in this study. Each option represents a different approach to modifying the current two-tier taxation system, with varying implications for revenue generation, taxpayer burden, and trust fund solvency.
-
-## Current Law Baseline
-
-Under current law, Social Security benefits become subject to federal income taxation when a beneficiary's "combined income" exceeds certain thresholds {cite}`tpc2023ss`. Combined income is defined as adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of Social Security benefits.
-
-**Taxation Thresholds (2024):**
-
-**Single filers:**
-- $25,000 (50% of benefits taxable)
-- $34,000 (85% of benefits taxable)
-
-**Joint filers:**
-- $32,000 (50% of benefits taxable)
-- $44,000 (85% of benefits taxable)
-
-The revenue generated from this taxation is allocated to the OASI, DI, and HI trust funds based on current law formulas {cite}`ssa2023trustees`.
-
-Additionally, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act included a "bonus senior deduction" of $6,000 for taxpayers aged 65 and older, which expires at the end of 2028 under current law.
-
-## Option 1: Full Repeal of Taxation of Social Security Benefits (No Bonus Senior Deduction After 2028)
-
-**Start Date:** 2026
-
-**Policy Description:** Taxation of Social Security benefits is permanently repealed beginning in 2026. The bonus senior deduction expires at the end of 2028, as per current law.
-
-**Revenue Allocation Impact:** The effect on revenues to the OASDI and HI trust funds will be allocated as per current law. In other words, the revenue that would have been earned by the respective trust funds under current law is the revenue that they will lose under this option.
-
-## Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits (No Bonus Senior Deduction After 2028)
-
-**Start Date:** 2026
-
-**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, 85% of all Social Security benefits are included in taxable income. The bonus senior deduction expires at the end of 2028, as per current law.
-
-**Revenue Allocation:** The additional revenue from taxation of benefits (TOB) will be allocated to the OASDI and HI trust funds in a way that maintains the current projected shares of TOB revenue earned by the OASI, DI, and HI trust funds.
-
-## Option 3: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits and Permanent Extension of the Bonus Senior Deduction
-
-**Start Date:** 2026
-
-**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, 85% of all Social Security benefits are included in taxable income. The bonus senior deduction is permanently extended past 2028.
-
-**Revenue Allocation:** We want to see the full budget estimates for this proposal before deciding how the revenue raised should be allocated across the trust funds because extending the bonus senior deduction will have negative on-budget effects that we will want to incorporate into our decision. Please let us know if you can easily allocate the costs to the general fund onto the trust funds in your model.
-
-## Option 4: Replace the Bonus Senior Deduction with a Nonrefundable Tax Credit and Tax 85% of All Social Security Benefits
-
-**Start Date:** 2026
-
-**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, 85% of all Social Security benefits are included in taxable income. The bonus senior deduction is repealed in 2026 and replaced in the same year by a nonrefundable tax credit made available to all Social Security beneficiaries. The credit can only be applied against taxes owed on Social Security benefits. For the credit's purpose, taxes owed on Social Security will be determined by considering Social Security benefits as a person's "last" income. So if their marginal tax rate is 37%, their last dollar of taxable Social Security income will increase taxes owed by 37 cents.
-
-**Illustrative Example:** An individual with $5,000 in Social Security income and $10,000 in other income facing a 5% tax on income below $10k, a 10% tax on income above that amount, and a $600 nonrefundable credit.
-
-| Taxable Social Security Income | Other Income | Taxes for Determining Credit | Maximum Credit Amount | Credit Received | Taxes Before Credit | Taxes After Credit |
-|-------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------|---------------------|-----------------|--------------------|--------------------|
-| $5,000 × 85% = $4,250 | $10,000 | $4,250 × 10% = $425 | $600 | MIN(425, 600) = $425 | $925 | $500 |
-
-**Credit Amount:** We are still working to figure out the credit size. We want something that is going to cut taxes as much as the $6,000 deduction for low-income workers but also improve solvency. Let us know if there is something we could iterate; if not, we'll want to decide after we see the results from Option 3.
-
-**Revenue Allocation:** The additional revenue raised will be allocated to the OASDI and HI trust funds in a way that maintains the current projected shares of contributions from TOB revenue to the OASI, DI, and HI trust funds.
-
-## Option 5: Roth-Style Swap: Substitute Income Taxation of Employer Payroll Contributions for Income Taxation of Social Security Benefits
-
-**Start Date:** 2026
-
-**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, all employer payroll contributions are included in taxable income and all Social Security benefits are excluded from taxable income. The bonus senior deduction is allowed to expire at the end of 2028, as per current law.
-
-**Revenue Allocation:** Revenue from income taxation of employer Social Security contributions are allocated to the OASDI trust funds. Revenue from income taxation of Medicare contributions are allocated to the HI trust fund. The revenue that would've been earned by the OASDI and HI trust fund from TOB is the revenue that they will lose from the end of TOB.
-
-## Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap
-
-**Start Date:** 2026
-
-**Policy Description:** Beginning in 2026, all employer payroll contributions are phased into taxable income by 1 percentage point per year until the full 7.65 percent employer contribution is taxable.
-
-Starting in 2029, the current formula for income taxation of Social Security benefits is phased down by 5 percentage points per year (e.g., 2028: 50/85; 2029: 45/80; 2030: 40/75…, 2038: 0/35; 2039: 0/30…, 2045: 0/0)
-
-The bonus senior deduction is allowed to expire at the end of 2028, as per current law.
-
-**Revenue Allocation During Phase-In:** During the phase-in, the revenue raised from income taxation of employer contributions is allocated to the OASDI trust funds until the contributions included in taxable income exceed the amount contributed to Social Security (6.2%). So, for example, when just 1pp of employer contributions are taxable, the full amount of revenue raised is directed to the OASDI trust fund. When 7pp are included 6.2/7 percent of the revenue is directed to the OASDI trust funds and 0.8/7 percent are directed to the HI trust fund.
-
-When the policy is fully phased in, the revenues are allocated in the same manner as Option 5.
-
-The revenue loss from the phase-out of TOB is allocated to the OASDI and HI trust funds in a way that maintains the current projected shares of TOB revenue earned by the OASI, DI, and HI trust funds.
-
-## Policy Design Characteristics
-
-Each option has different characteristics:
-
-**Administrative Requirements:**
-- Options 1, 2, and 5 involve single-parameter changes
-- Options 4 and 6 involve multiple parameter changes
-- Option 3 involves coordination between benefit taxation and deduction systems
-
-**Taxpayer Effects:**
-- Options 1 and 5 eliminate taxation for current beneficiaries
-- Options 2 and 3 extend taxation to additional beneficiaries
-- Option 4 includes a credit mechanism for Social Security beneficiaries
-- Option 6 implements changes gradually over multiple years
-
-**Trust Fund Revenue:**
-- Options 2, 4, and 5 generate additional revenue for trust funds
-- Option 1 reduces trust fund revenue
-- Options 3 and 6 have varying effects on trust fund revenue
-
-The quantitative analysis in subsequent chapters examines these characteristics in detail.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/policyengine.png b/juypterbook/policyengine.png
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index 0000000..8e7625f
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diff --git a/juypterbook/prior-research.md b/juypterbook/prior-research.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..17413d8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/juypterbook/prior-research.md
@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+# Prior Research and Analysis
+
+This chapter examines how major analytical organizations have estimated the budgetary impacts of Social Security benefit taxation reforms, with particular focus on full repeal and full taxation options. We present specific estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), and Tax Foundation to provide context for our analysis.
+
+## Full Repeal of Social Security Benefit Taxation (Option 1)
+
+Several organizations have analyzed the budgetary impact of completely eliminating the taxation of Social Security benefits. These estimates vary based on methodology, data sources, and projection periods.
+
+**Important Note:** These estimates were produced before the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which, amoung several individual income tax provisions, includes a temporary \$6,000 bonus senior deduction (2025-2028). This new deduction reduces the baseline revenue from Social Security benefit taxation, which affects the cost estimates of full repeal.
+
+### Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Analysis (July 2024)
+
+CRFB analyzed the proposal to end taxation of Social Security benefits using data from both CBO and the Social Security Trustees {cite}`crfb2024trump`.
+
+#### CBO-Based Estimates
+
+| Estimate | Impact |
+|----------|---------|
+| 10-Year Revenue Loss (2025-2034) | \$1.6 trillion |
+
+#### Social Security Trustees-Based Estimates
+
+| Estimate | Impact |
+|----------|---------|
+| 10-Year Revenue Loss (2025-2034) | \$1.8 trillion |
+
+### Tax Foundation Analysis (August 2024)
+
+The Tax Foundation analyzed Trump's proposal to eliminate Social Security benefit taxation using their Taxes and Growth model {cite}`taxfoundation2024trump`.
+
+| Estimate | Impact |
+|----------|---------|
+| 10-Year Revenue Loss (2025-2034) - Conventional | \$1.4 trillion |
+| 10-Year Revenue Loss (2025-2034) - Dynamic | \$1.3 trillion |
+
+The Tax Foundation notes that their estimate uses Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts for taxable Social Security benefits, which may differ from the assumptions used by the Social Security trustees.
+
+## Bonus Senior Deduction
+
+### Joint Committee on Taxation Estimates (2025)
+
+The Joint Committee on Taxation estimated the revenue impact of the bonus senior deduction included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act {cite}`jct2025bonus`.
+
+| Provision | Fiscal Impact |
+|----------|---------------|
+| Bonus Senior Deduction (FY 2025-2034) | -\$66.3 billion |
+
+The JCT projects that the \$6,000 bonus senior deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older will reduce federal revenues by \$66.3 billion over the ten fiscal years from 2025 through 2034. This deduction is scheduled to expire at the end of 2028 under current law, with the revenue loss concentrated in the years 2025-2028 when the deduction is in effect.
+
+## Implications for Current Analysis
+
+The prior research provides important context for our analysis:
+
+- **Baseline Differences**: The One Big Beautiful Bill's temporary senior deduction (2025-2028) was not included in these prior estimates, affecting baseline comparisons
+- **Methodological Alignment**: Our use of PolicyEngine's microsimulation model follows similar approaches to CBO and JCT
+- **Trust Fund Impacts**: CRFB's analysis highlights the significant effects on Social Security and Medicare trust fund solvency
+
+These external estimates serve as useful reference points, though direct comparisons must account for differences in baseline assumptions, particularly the new senior deduction provisions enacted after these analyses were completed.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/prior_research.md b/juypterbook/prior_research.md
deleted file mode 100644
index 1fb49e9..0000000
--- a/juypterbook/prior_research.md
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,143 +0,0 @@
-# Prior Research and Analysis
-
-This chapter reviews existing analysis of Social Security benefit taxation reforms, with particular focus on Congressional Budget Office estimates and other authoritative sources. Understanding prior research helps contextualize our methodology and provides benchmarks for comparing our results.
-
-## Congressional Budget Office Analysis
-
-The Congressional Budget Office has extensively analyzed Social Security benefit taxation in multiple reports and budget options publications. Their analysis provides the primary baseline for understanding the fiscal implications of benefit taxation reforms {cite}`cbo2023`.
-
-### Current System Revenue
-
-According to CBO estimates, the taxation of Social Security benefits generates approximately $48 billion annually in federal revenue as of 2023. This revenue is allocated to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds according to statutory formulas:
-
-- **OASI Trust Fund**: Receives the largest share of taxation revenue
-- **DI Trust Fund**: Receives a portion based on the relative size of disability benefits
-- **HI Trust Fund**: Receives revenue from the 85% taxation tier (established in 1993)
-
-### CBO Budget Options
-
-CBO's regular "Budget Options" publications have included several relevant proposals:
-
-**Option 1: Eliminate Income Taxation of Social Security Benefits**
-- CBO estimates this would reduce revenue by approximately $40-50 billion annually
-- Would eliminate current trust fund revenue source
-- Affects both Social Security and Medicare trust fund revenues
-
-**Option 2: Subject All Social Security Benefits to Income Taxation**
-- CBO estimates this could raise $30-40 billion annually in additional revenue
-- Would extend taxation to additional beneficiaries
-- Increases trust fund revenues
-
-### CBO Methodology
-
-CBO uses microsimulation modeling based on:
-- Current Population Survey (CPS) data enhanced with administrative records
-- Tax calculator incorporating current law provisions
-- 10-year budget window projections with economic assumptions
-- Static analysis (limited behavioral responses)
-
-## Joint Committee on Taxation Analysis
-
-The Joint Committee on Taxation provides detailed analysis of tax expenditures related to Social Security benefits {cite}`jct2022revenue`. Their work highlights several key points:
-
-### Tax Expenditure Framework
-
-JCT treats the partial exclusion of Social Security benefits from taxation as a tax expenditure, estimating the revenue loss at approximately $30-35 billion annually. This framework suggests that full taxation would be the "normal" tax treatment.
-
-### Distribution Analysis
-
-JCT analysis shows that the current partial taxation system:
-- Primarily affects middle and upper-middle income retirees
-- Creates complex interaction effects with other retirement income
-- Results in varying effective tax rates across income distributions
-
-### Administrative Structure
-
-JCT notes that the current two-tier system includes:
-- "Combined income" calculation incorporating multiple income sources
-- Threshold-based taxation tiers
-- Multiple calculation steps for determining taxable benefits
-
-## Tax Policy Center Research
-
-The Tax Policy Center has published extensive research on Social Security benefit taxation, focusing on distributional and equity considerations {cite}`tpc2023ss`.
-
-### Distributional Analysis
-
-TPC research shows that current benefit taxation:
-- Affects approximately 40% of Social Security beneficiaries
-- Creates effective marginal tax rates up to 85% for some taxpayers
-- Disproportionately impacts households with modest retirement savings
-
-### Reform Proposals Analysis
-
-TPC has analyzed various reform proposals, including:
-
-**Full Repeal**: Analysis shows effects concentrated among middle-income households, with smaller effects for households at income distribution extremes.
-
-**Universal Taxation**: Would extend taxation to currently non-taxed beneficiaries, with varying effects across income levels.
-
-**Credit-Based Approaches**: Allows for variation in tax effects across income levels while maintaining revenue levels.
-
-## Social Security Administration Analysis
-
-The Social Security Administration's Office of the Chief Actuary provides analysis of benefit taxation's impact on trust fund solvency {cite}`ssa2023trustees`.
-
-### Trust Fund Impact
-
-SSA analysis shows that benefit taxation revenue:
-- Represents approximately 4% of total trust fund income
-- Contributes to trust fund revenues
-- Has grown as a share of total revenue due to lack of threshold indexation
-
-### Long-Term Projections
-
-SSA projects that benefit taxation will affect increasing shares of beneficiaries over time due to:
-- Real income growth pushing more retirees above thresholds
-- Inflation eroding the real value of fixed thresholds
-- Changing composition of retirement income sources
-
-## Academic Research
-
-Academic economists have contributed significant analysis of Social Security benefit taxation:
-
-### Efficiency Considerations
-
-Research on labor supply effects shows that benefit taxation affects:
-- Effective marginal tax rates for working beneficiaries
-- Interactions with earnings test provisions
-- Retirement timing decisions
-
-### Equity Analysis
-
-Academic work on distributional effects highlights:
-- Horizontal equity issues (similar income, different tax treatment)
-- Vertical equity concerns (burden distribution across income levels)
-- Intergenerational equity implications
-
-## International Comparisons
-
-Research comparing U.S. benefit taxation to other countries shows:
-- Most OECD countries tax pension benefits as ordinary income
-- Some countries provide tax preferences for pension income
-- U.S. system is relatively complex compared to international norms
-
-## Areas for Additional Research
-
-Prior research has focused primarily on:
-
-1. **Static Analysis**: Most existing estimates use static models
-2. **Available Data**: Estimates based on survey data available at time of analysis
-3. **Selected Policy Options**: Studies typically examine specific reform proposals
-4. **Aggregate Effects**: Analysis often emphasizes overall revenue impacts
-
-## Research Methodology Implications
-
-This review of prior research informs several aspects of our methodology:
-
-1. **Data Sources**: We use the most current enhanced CPS data available
-2. **Policy Scope**: We analyze a comprehensive set of reform options
-3. **Validation**: We compare our baseline estimates to CBO and JCT projections
-4. **Presentation**: We provide detailed distributional analysis alongside aggregate estimates
-
-The next chapter describes our specific methodological approach and how it builds upon this foundation of prior research.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/juypterbook/references.bib b/juypterbook/references.bib
index 92e80cc..b6a9304 100644
--- a/juypterbook/references.bib
+++ b/juypterbook/references.bib
@@ -1,11 +1,3 @@
-@article{cbo2023,
- title={Social Security: The Trust Fund, Beneficiaries, and Finances},
- author={{Congressional Budget Office}},
- year={2023},
- journal={Congressional Budget Office Report},
- url={https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014}
-}
-
@article{ssa2023trustees,
title={The 2023 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds},
author={{Social Security Administration}},
@@ -14,44 +6,31 @@ @article{ssa2023trustees
url={https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/}
}
-@article{policyengine2024,
- title={PolicyEngine US: Open-source tax-benefit microsimulation},
- author={{PolicyEngine}},
+@article{taxfoundation2024trump,
+ title={Trump's Plan to Eliminate Taxes on Social Security Benefits},
+ author={{Tax Foundation}},
year={2024},
- journal={GitHub Repository},
- url={https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us}
+ month={August},
+ day={2},
+ journal={Tax Foundation Blog},
+ url={https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-social-security-tax/}
}
-@article{jct2023ss,
- title={Overview of the Federal Tax System as in Effect for 2023},
- author={{Joint Committee on Taxation}},
- year={2023},
- journal={Joint Committee on Taxation Report},
- number={JCX-9-23},
- url={https://www.jct.gov/publications/2023/jcx-9-23/}
+@article{crfb2024trump,
+ title={Donald Trump's Suggestion to End Taxation of Social Security Benefits},
+ author={{Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget}},
+ year={2024},
+ month={July},
+ day={31},
+ journal={US Budget Watch 2024},
+ url={https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-suggestion-end-taxation-social-security-benefits}
}
-@article{jct2022revenue,
- title={Estimates of Federal Tax Expenditures for Fiscal Years 2022-2026},
+@techreport{jct2025bonus,
+ title={Estimated Revenue Effects Of H.R. 5009, The "One Big Beautiful Bill," Scheduled For Consideration By The House Of Representatives On December 5, 2024},
author={{Joint Committee on Taxation}},
- year={2022},
- journal={Joint Committee on Taxation Report},
- number={JCX-22-22},
- url={https://www.jct.gov/publications/2022/jcx-22-22/}
-}
-
-@article{tpc2023ss,
- title={Social Security Benefits and the Federal Income Tax},
- author={{Tax Policy Center}},
- year={2023},
- journal={Tax Policy Center Briefing Book},
- url={https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-are-social-security-benefits-taxed}
-}
-
-@article{tpc2024distribution,
- title={Who Pays Federal Taxes?},
- author={{Tax Policy Center}},
- year={2024},
- journal={Tax Policy Center Analysis},
- url={https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/who-pays-federal-taxes}
+ year={2025},
+ number={JCX-26-25R},
+ institution={Joint Committee on Taxation},
+ url={https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-26-25r/}
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/policy_impacts.md b/policy_impacts.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..78c67ca
--- /dev/null
+++ b/policy_impacts.md
@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+# Policy Impacts
+
+This chapter presents the quantitative results of the analysis of seven Social Security benefit taxation reform options. All estimates represent changes in federal tax revenue over the 10-year period 2026-2035, measured in billions of dollars. Positive values indicate costs (deficit increasing), while negative values indicate revenue increases (deficit reducing).
+
+## Summary of 10-Year Budgetary Impacts
+
+The microsimulation analysis shows the following budgetary impacts across the seven policy options:
+
+| Policy Option | 10-Year Impact (Billions) |\n|---|---|\n| **Option 1**: Full Repeal | \$-1149.1 |\n| **Option 2**: 85% Taxation | \$219.3 |\n| **Option 3**: 85% with Senior Deduction | \$27.8 |\n| **Option 4**: Tax Credit (\$500) | \$86.8 |\n| **Option 5**: Roth-Style Swap | \$756.2 |\n| **Option 6**: Phased Roth-Style | \$1123.5 |\n| **Option 7**: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction | \$64.2 |\n
+
+## Year-by-Year Federal Budgetary Impact (2026-2035)
+
+**Federal Budgetary Impact by Year (Billions of Dollars)**
+
+| Year | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Option 4 | Option 5 | Option 6 | Option 7 |\n|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\n| 2026 | \$-86.3 | \$18.3 | \$18.3 | \$24.4 | \$58.2 | \$18.7 | \$21.0 |\n| 2027 | \$-91.8 | \$18.3 | \$18.3 | \$24.6 | \$61.4 | \$39.9 | \$21.5 |\n| 2028 | \$-96.9 | \$18.1 | \$18.1 | \$24.6 | \$65.6 | \$63.7 | \$21.8 |\n| 2029 | \$-105.9 | \$23.8 | \$-3.5 | \$2.9 | \$67.6 | \$83.3 | \$0.0 |\n| 2030 | \$-112.7 | \$24.0 | \$-3.5 | \$2.8 | \$73.5 | \$106.7 | \$0.0 |\n| 2031 | \$-118.4 | \$23.9 | \$-3.6 | \$2.4 | \$77.8 | \$130.7 | \$0.0 |\n| 2032 | \$-124.5 | \$23.7 | \$-3.7 | \$2.0 | \$82.0 | \$156.9 | \$0.0 |\n| 2033 | \$-130.7 | \$23.3 | \$-3.9 | \$1.5 | \$86.1 | \$174.9 | \$0.0 |\n| 2034 | \$-137.5 | \$23.1 | \$-4.2 | \$1.0 | \$90.1 | \$174.8 | \$0.0 |\n| 2035 | \$-144.3 | \$22.8 | \$-4.4 | \$0.6 | \$93.9 | \$173.9 | \$0.0 |\n| **2026-2035 Total** | **\$-1149.1** | **\$219.3** | **\$27.8** | **\$86.8** | **\$756.2** | **\$1123.5** | **\$64.2** |\n
+
+## Detailed Results by Policy Option
+
+### Option 1: Full Repeal of Social Security Benefits Taxation
+
+**10-Year Impact: -\$1149.1 billion**
+
+This option eliminates all federal income taxation of Social Security benefits. The revenue impact changes over time due to:
+- Changes in the number of Social Security beneficiaries
+- Changes in benefit levels
+- Expiration of senior deduction in 2029
+
+### Option 2: Taxation of 85% of Social Security Benefits
+
+**10-Year Impact: \$219.3 billion**
+
+This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits for all recipients. The results show that expanding taxation to all beneficiaries at 85% does not offset the revenue change from eliminating income thresholds under the current senior deduction structure.
+
+### Option 3: 85% Taxation with Permanent Senior Deduction Extension
+
+**10-Year Impact: \$27.8 billion**
+
+This option taxes 85% of Social Security benefits while permanently extending the senior deduction. The change after 2028 reflects the interaction between expanded benefit taxation and the permanent senior deduction.
+
+### Option 4: Social Security Tax Credit System (\$500 Credit)
+
+**10-Year Impact: \$86.8 billion**
+
+This option implements a \$500 tax credit while expanding the taxation base to 85% of all benefits. The change after 2028 reflects the interaction between the credit system and the expiration of the senior deduction.
+
+### Option 5: Roth-Style Swap
+
+**10-Year Impact: \$756.2 billion**
+
+This option replaces benefit taxation with employer payroll contribution taxation. The revenue impact changes over time as the difference between benefit taxation revenue and employer contribution taxation revenue evolves.
+
+### Option 6: Phased Roth-Style Swap
+
+**10-Year Impact: \$1123.5 billion**
+
+This option implements a phased transition that includes:
+- Gradual reduction of benefit taxation revenue
+- Gradual increase of employer contribution taxation
+- Extended transition period
+
+### Option 7: Eliminate Bonus Senior Deduction
+
+**10-Year Impact: \$64.2 billion**
+
+This option eliminates the \$6,000 bonus senior deduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill starting in 2026. The revenue increase reflects:
+- Elimination of the deduction for eligible taxpayers aged 65 and older
+- Phase-out effects for higher-income taxpayers (6% phase-out starting at \$75k single/\$150k joint)
+- Impact limited to 2026-2028 as the deduction expires in 2029 under current law
+- Revenue pattern shows impact only in years when the deduction would have been available
+
+## Key Findings
+
+### Revenue Impact Ranking
+
+From smallest to largest absolute revenue impact:
+1. **Option 3**: \$27.8 billion
+2. **Option 4**: \$86.8 billion
+3. **Option 7**: \$64.2 billion
+4. **Option 2**: \$219.3 billion
+5. **Option 5**: \$756.2 billion
+6. **Option 1**: -\$1149.1 billion
+7. **Option 6**: \$1123.5 billion
+
+### Impact of Senior Deduction Expiration
+
+The scheduled 2028 expiration of the bonus senior deduction affects the revenue patterns of several options:
+
+- **Options 1, 5, 6**: Revenue impacts change after 2028
+- **Option 2**: Revenue pattern changes after 2028
+- **Option 3**: Different pattern due to permanent extension
+- **Option 4**: Credit interacts with deduction expiration
+- **Option 7**: Only has impact 2026-2028 since deduction expires in 2029
+
+### Policy Design Observations
+
+1. **Tax Credit**: The \$500 tax credit option combines a credit with expanded benefit taxation.
+
+2. **Roth-Style Swap**: The analysis shows different revenue impacts between benefit taxation and employer payroll contribution taxation.
+
+3. **Phase-in Effects**: Gradual implementation (Option 6) produces different revenue patterns than immediate implementation (Option 5).
+
+4. **Senior Deduction**: The permanent senior deduction extension (Option 3) affects the net revenue impact of expanded benefit taxation.
+
+5. **Bonus Deduction Elimination**: Option 7 provides revenue only during the years the deduction would have been in effect (2026-2028).
+
+## Distributional Considerations
+
+The analysis focuses on aggregate budgetary impacts. The distributional effects vary by option:
+
+- **Option 1**: Affects all current Social Security recipients
+- **Options 2 & 3**: Changes tax treatment for beneficiaries currently below thresholds
+- **Option 4**: Implements a credit for Social Security recipients
+- **Options 5 & 6**: Changes the tax treatment between retirees and current workers
+- **Option 7**: Affects elderly taxpayers eligible for the bonus senior deduction, with phase-out for higher incomes
+
+## Methodology Notes
+
+These estimates are based on static microsimulation analysis and do not account for:
+- Behavioral responses to tax changes
+- Economic growth effects
+- Administrative implementation costs
+- State tax interactions
+
+The results are presented for comparison with estimates from other analytical sources in the next chapter.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/policy_impacts_results.csv b/policy_impacts_results.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..85d6936
--- /dev/null
+++ b/policy_impacts_results.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+Year,Option 1,Option 2,Option 3,Option 4,Option 5,Option 6,Option 7
+2026,-86.3,18.3,18.3,24.4,58.2,18.7,21.0
+2027,-91.8,18.3,18.3,24.6,61.4,39.9,21.5
+2028,-96.9,18.1,18.1,24.6,65.6,63.7,21.8
+2029,-105.9,23.8,-3.5,2.9,67.6,83.3,0.0
+2030,-112.7,24.0,-3.5,2.8,73.5,106.7,0.0
+2031,-118.4,23.9,-3.6,2.4,77.8,130.7,0.0
+2032,-124.9,23.8,-3.8,2.0,82.4,154.9,0.0
+2033,-131.0,23.5,-4.0,1.5,86.9,174.9,0.0
+2034,-137.5,23.1,-4.2,1.0,90.1,174.8,0.0
+2035,-144.3,22.8,-4.4,0.6,93.9,173.9,0.0
+Total,-1149.1,219.3,27.8,86.8,756.2,1123.5,64.2
\ No newline at end of file