Skip to content

Conversation

@MaxGhenis
Copy link
Contributor

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Nov 28, 2025

Summary

  • Draft blog post analyzing the Autumn Budget 2025 student loan threshold freeze
  • Contains placeholder data - model producing zero impact due to technical limitation

Technical issue

The student loan repayment reform affects hbai_household_net_income (what households experience) but not gov_balance (what the pipeline uses for budgetary impact). Student loan repayments are treated as loan repayments, not government revenue, so they don't show up in budgetary calculations.

Needs: Either:

  1. Add student_loan_repayment to gov_balance calculation in policyengine-uk, OR
  2. Create a custom budgetary impact calculation for this reform in the dashboard

TODO before merging

  • Fix model to capture student loan repayment impact on government balance
  • Run dashboard pipeline to generate actual distributional data
  • Update chart values with real model outputs
  • Verify revenue estimates match OBR (~£0.3-0.4bn/year)
  • Add appropriate cover image

Related

  • Dashboard PR: PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard#26
  • Blog chart generator: PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard#32

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits November 28, 2025 00:05
- Remove 2025-26 column from revenue table (no impact that year)
- Update chart to use app-v2 design tokens:
  - Inter font family instead of Roboto Serif
  - Teal primary color (#319795)
  - £ prefix on y-axis tick labels
  - Rounded data labels to nearest £1
- Replace LaTeX formula with prose description

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
Draft post with placeholder data - needs real distributional analysis from dashboard pipeline.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
@vercel
Copy link

vercel bot commented Nov 28, 2025

The latest updates on your projects. Learn more about Vercel for GitHub.

Project Deployment Preview Comments Updated (UTC)
policyengine-app-v2 Ready Ready Preview Comment Nov 30, 2025 1:59am

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis changed the title Draft: Student loan threshold freeze blog post Student loan threshold freeze blog post Nov 28, 2025
The freeze is for 3 years starting April 2026 (not April 2027):
- 2026-27, 2027-28, 2028-29: Frozen at £28,470
- 2029-30: Returns to RPI uprating

Updated:
- Intro text: "April 2027" → "April 2026"
- Table 1: 2029-30 now shows £32,280 (RPI-uprated), not frozen
- Table 2: 2029-30 revenue impact now £0.0bn (freeze ended)
- Revenue text: peak at £0.5bn in 2028-29, not £0.7bn in 2029-30
- Borrower impact: £250/year by 2028-29, £400-600 cumulative
- Conclusion: £0.1-0.5bn during freeze period

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
Shows how a 2026 graduate with £15k debt and £31k starting salary
can actually save £1,354 over their lifetime due to faster loan
payoff under the threshold freeze, despite higher annual payments.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
@vahid-ahmadi
Copy link
Contributor

@MaxGhenis could you remind me which caveats you think we should add to the post so it’s publishable for now?

Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

3 participants