diff --git a/estimation.qmd b/estimation.qmd index 856779d1e..304e91f77 100644 --- a/estimation.qmd +++ b/estimation.qmd @@ -73,6 +73,69 @@ Model paramaters and other estimands are often symbolized using lower-case Greek letters: $\alpha, \beta, \gamma, \delta$, etc. ::: +#### Estimands in Clinical Trials + +In clinical trial research, +the concept of an estimand has taken on particular importance following the ICH E9(R1) addendum. +An **estimand** is a precise definition of a treatment effect reflecting a clinical question related to a trial objective [@nejm2024estimand]. +A clear specification of the estimand ensures that the clinical question of interest aligns with the statistical analysis plan. + +##### Intercurrent Events + +**Intercurrent events** are events that occur after treatment initiation that affect either the interpretation or availability of data associated with the clinical question of interest [@nejm2024estimand]. +Examples include treatment discontinuation due to side effects, +use of rescue therapy, +death (when death is not the primary endpoint), +or withdrawal of consent. +These events pose challenges for estimating treatment effects and require explicit strategies for how to incorporate them into analyses. + +##### Estimand Strategies + +Different strategies for handling intercurrent events lead to different estimands [@nejm2024estimand]: + +**Treatment policy strategy** (ITT analysis): + +The intention-to-treat (ITT) principle holds that treatment effects should be estimated from all participants assigned to a group, +regardless of whether they adhered to their assigned treatment. +This approach includes all participants regardless of intercurrent events and represents the "real-world effect." +The ITT effect quantifies the causal effect of treatment assignment and should remain the primary effect estimate in randomized trials. + +**Hypothetical strategy** (trial-product or efficacy estimand): + +This strategy involves imagining a scenario in which intercurrent events (such as treatment discontinuation) wouldn't occur, +and estimates the treatment effect in that hypothetical scenario. +Investigators discard observed endpoints after discontinuation and impute counterfactual values. +However, this approach is problematic because: + +- It generates estimates that haven't been — and probably couldn't be — observed +- It assumes treatment benefits would be the same in participants who discontinued and those who remained on treatment, which is unlikely +- It often inflates the treatment effect relative to the ITT estimate + +When reporting hypothetical strategies, +authors must clarify that the resulting estimates do not correspond to an observed treatment effect and are likely to be larger in magnitude than the ITT effect [@nejm2024estimand]. + +**Composite variable strategy**: + +This approach incorporates the intercurrent events into the estimate of the treatment effect, +recognizing that these events are informative. +For example, +a composite variable could be defined as a participant meeting the endpoint criteria while continuing to receive treatment. + +##### Reporting Recommendations + +@nejm2024estimand recommend that clinical trial reports should: + +- Present ITT analyses as the primary results and generally the only analyses in the abstract +- Fully report data on side effects and adverse events +- If other estimand strategies are presented, clearly describe them using ICH terminology +- Place non-ITT estimands in supplementary appendices, not alongside ITT results +- Include detailed methods sections describing intercurrent events and their handling + +By precisely defining the estimand before collecting data, +researchers ensure that the trial design, +conduct, +and analysis address a meaningful clinical question [@pohl2021estimands; @lawrance2020estimand; @nejm2024estimand]. + ### Estimates \index{estimate} \index{estimated value} diff --git a/references.bib b/references.bib index 4c805bb4d..804bc5100 100644 --- a/references.bib +++ b/references.bib @@ -151,6 +151,19 @@ @article{lawrance2020estimand url={https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41687-020-00218-5} } +@article{nejm2024estimand, + title={What's in an Estimand?}, + author={Troxel, Andrea B and Gatsonis, Constantine A and Hogan, Joseph W and Hubbard, Rebecca A and Hunter, David J and Normand, Sharon-Lise T}, + journal={New England Journal of Medicine}, + volume={394}, + number={1}, + pages={6--9}, + year={2025}, + doi={10.1056/NEJMp2513633}, + url={https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2513633}, + note={Perspective} +} + @article{efron1978assessing, title={Assessing the accuracy of the maximum likelihood estimator: Observed versus expected Fisher information}, author={Efron, Bradley and Hinkley, David V},