interpretation of likelihood of death

[LenkaF]

Hi, what does the likelihood of death actually mean? Everyone has a likelihood of death equal to 100 %, after all, as sooner or later, each of us is going to die. In other words, valar morghulis :) So for example if Daenerys has a likelihood of death equal to 95 %, does it mean we can be 95% sure she is the one who is going to die next (rather than a different character), or does it mean she has a 95% probability of dying over a certain period of time? (next episode, next season etc.?)
Thanks.

[TatyanaGoldberg]

Hi @LenkaF, thanks for your question! Yeah, it is quite a bloody show and so many characters die. However some charcters are in the larger danger of death than the others. We found out for example, that men in general are likelier to die and those between 20 and 40 years old especially. There are also other factors (such as house and culture) that contribute to the likelihood of death. We extracted all our data describing a character from the first five books of the Song of Ice and Fire series.

So, our likeliood basically tells whom you can expect to die next in book six.

Stannis for example, is still alive in book 5, so we predict him to die very soon in book 6. In the show (that diverges a bit from the book), he is already dead. So, the prediction for him is correct!