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Description
It would be useful to have a command-line interface to score predictions and possibly give a score for calibration.
Discussion in EA Forecasting Slack.
We would need a way to store and get the predictions, as well as a way to parse them. A couple of options:
- CSV
- Roam Research
1 CSV
In https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally, predictions are stored in the format
STATUS,date,probability,statement
2 Roam Research
- [[Predictions]]
- %
- [[operationalized]]:
- date:
- {{[[TODO]]}} [[outcome]]:
Operationalized:
A question that’s been defined enough that it’s “tied to reality” such that it can be resolved. In practice I just add the indicators I’d expect to see if true or false
Workflow:
- Export from Roam
- Run
predictionscorer roam path/to/export.json - Get analysis, chart?
For distribution: https://realpython.com/pyinstaller-python/
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