Implement rising hub heights for wind; profile smoothing for offshore wind #171

nworbmot · 2024-08-14T14:54:09Z

This PR makes several changes to improve the modelling of wind profiles:

It raises the hub heights over the investment periods (from 80m to 100m for onshore wind, from 120m to 140m for offshore), to reflect larger wind turbines, and rising capacity factors.
It implements atlite's windturbine_smooth, as described by Gorm Andersen et al's REatlas paper and Bloomfield et al 2022 Fig 5 from NationalGrid. This represents smoothing across weather cells, turbine availability and other factors deviating from raw wind power curves. This lowers capacity factors by around 20%.

The smoothing is not yet implemented for onshore wind, because we see from DTU's Global Wind Atlas that the ERA5 wind speeds are a little too low over land in Germany. This is not an issue for offshore. Once the GWA correction is implemented, we can turn the smoothing on for onshore too.

FLH from ISE Stromgestehungskosten 2024 for new turbines:

onwind: 1800-2500-3200 (Binnen-Nord-Küste)
offshore: 3200-3600-4500 (middle-far-best)

Average CF for onshore in Germany in 2019 was 21.5% (1880 FLH).

Average capacity factors/FLH before the change in 2020:

onwind: 20.2% / 1768
offwind-ac: 47.4% / 4154
offwind-dc: 58.8% / 5149

and in 2045:

onwind: 23.3% / 2042
offwind-ac: 47.9% / 4194
offwind-dc: 58.6% / 5137

(changes due to changing distribution of wind inside Germany).

After the change in 2020:

onwind: 22.2% / 1951
offwind-ac: 38.7% / 3387
offwind-dc: n/a

in 2045:

onwind: 26.3% / 2305
offwind-ac: 40.3% / 3531
offwind-dc: 51.9% / 4547

Before asking for a review for this PR make sure to complete the following checklist:

Workflow with target rule ariadne_all completes without errors
The logic of export_ariadne_variables has been adapted to the changes
One or several figures that validate the changes in the PR have been posted as a comment
A brief description of the changes has been added to Changelog.md
The latest main has been merged into the PR
The config has a new prefix of the format YYYYMMDDdescriptive_title

Smoothing by Gaussian kernel enabled following Gorm Andresen atlas implementation. Hub heights raised by 10m every 10 years versus PyPSA-Eur reference turbines (Vestas 3 MW for onwind, NREL 5 MW for offwind).

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

config/config.yaml

lindnemi · 2024-08-14T15:46:41Z

config/config.yaml

+          V: [3.0, 3.2, 3.5, 3.8, 4.0, 4.2, 4.5, 4.8, 5.0, 5.2, 5.5, 5.8, 6.0, 6.2, 6.5, 6.8, 7.0, 7.2, 7.5, 7.8, 8.0, 8.2, 8.5, 8.8, 9.0, 9.2, 9.5, 9.8, 10.0, 10.2, 10.5, 10.8, 11.0, 11.2, 11.5, 11.8, 12.0, 12.2, 12.5, 12.8, 13.0, 13.2, 13.5, 13.8, 14.0, 14.2, 14.5, 14.8, 15.0, 15.2, 15.5, 15.8, 16.0, 16.2, 16.5, 16.8, 17.0, 17.2, 17.5, 17.8, 18.0, 18.2, 18.5, 18.8, 19.0, 19.2, 19.5, 19.8, 20.0, 20.2, 20.5, 20.8, 21.0, 21.2, 21.5, 21.8, 22.0, 22.2, 22.5, 22.8, 23.0, 23.2, 23.5, 23.8, 24.0, 24.2, 24.5, 24.8, 25.0]
+          POW: [0.0, 0.127, 0.178, 0.237, 0.305, 0.381, 0.468, 0.564, 0.671, 0.789, 0.919, 1.061, 1.216, 1.385, 1.567, 1.765, 1.977, 2.205, 2.45, 2.711, 2.99, 3.287, 3.602, 3.937, 4.291, 4.665, 5.06, 5.477, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 0.0]
+          hub_height: 140.
+          P: 5.5
  offwind-float:


offwind-float should probably also benefit from smoothing and hub height increases?

It's not built in PyPSA-Ariadne, so we should probably just remove it. Also I'm not super familiar with the technology...

i think saw some runs where it got built to some extent, but i'd be happy to remove it

In this version two errors (lack of smoothing and lack of GWA correction) cancel out. Both should be fixed in medium-term.

github-actions · 2024-08-15T22:38:34Z

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main passed! ✅
wind_cf failed in: build_transmission_projects

Comparing wind_cf (3671248) with main (a4c3104).
Branch is 8 commits ahead and 1 commits behind.
Last updated on 2024-09-06 19:13:20 CEST.

lindnemi · 2024-09-06T11:03:57Z

These changes might be a little too drastic. Offwind does not get built anymore (just when forced in).
Before:

After:

And looking at the European energy balance:

Before:

After:

That's a 365H simulation

… wind (#171) * enable wind profile smoothing; raise hub heights in 2030 and 2040 Smoothing by Gaussian kernel enabled following Gorm Andresen atlas implementation. Hub heights raised by 10m every 10 years versus PyPSA-Eur reference turbines (Vestas 3 MW for onwind, NREL 5 MW for offwind). * [pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci * turn off onwind smoothing until GWA correction to wind speeds In this version two errors (lack of smoothing and lack of GWA correction) cancel out. Both should be fixed in medium-term. * disable offwind-float --------- Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Lukas Trippe <[email protected]> Co-authored-by: Michael Lindner <[email protected]>

nworbmot and others added 3 commits August 14, 2024 09:44

enable wind profile smoothing; raise hub heights in 2030 and 2040

f05003a

Smoothing by Gaussian kernel enabled following Gorm Andresen atlas implementation. Hub heights raised by 10m every 10 years versus PyPSA-Eur reference turbines (Vestas 3 MW for onwind, NREL 5 MW for offwind).

Merge branch 'main' into wind_cf

96ae3d8

[pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

48be216

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

lindnemi reviewed Aug 14, 2024

View reviewed changes

turn off onwind smoothing until GWA correction to wind speeds

b8525b6

In this version two errors (lack of smoothing and lack of GWA correction) cancel out. Both should be fixed in medium-term.

lkstrp and others added 3 commits September 4, 2024 14:45

Merge branch 'main' into wind_cf

583d9d6

Merge branch 'main' into wind_cf

13bf517

disable offwind-float

e3a130e

Merge branch 'main' into wind_cf

3671248

lindnemi merged commit a4c3104 into main Sep 6, 2024
2 checks passed

This was referenced Sep 11, 2024

Offwind capacity_factor too high #188

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capacity_factor too high for offwind PyPSA/pypsa-de#15

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Implement rising hub heights for wind; profile smoothing for offshore wind #171

Implement rising hub heights for wind; profile smoothing for offshore wind #171

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Implement rising hub heights for wind; profile smoothing for offshore wind #171

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