feat(speculation): fold predictor into Scorer - #683
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## Summary ### Why? A scorer prices change content, but speculation also needs a separate contract for revising that price with evidence observed during a run. Keeping the concerns separate avoids adding path data that every content scorer would discard. ### What? Add the `predictor.Predictor` contract and an evidence implementation that converts the scorer probability to odds, applies factors for passed and failed all-succeed paths plus merging and cancelling states, and converts the result back to a probability. Include generated mocks and unit coverage for neutral factors, compounding evidence, path filtering, bounds, validation, and scorer failures. ## Test Plan - `bazel test //submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/...` - `make check-gazelle`
## Summary ### Why? The evidence implementation still described the model as logistic regression over odds and referenced fitting work that the RFC no longer proposes. That made the code's vocabulary diverge from the factor contract exposed to operators. ### What? Combine the applicable evidence factors first and revise the scorer price with the equivalent bounded formula. Remove stale fitting rationale and keep implementation and tests in the RFC's scorer-price and factor terminology without changing behavior. ## Test Plan - ✅ `./tool/bazel test //submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/...`
## Summary ### Why? Neutral prediction changed exact scorer prices at 0 and 1, non-finite factors could create certainty, and failed-path compounding relied on duplicate logical paths that a valid path set cannot contain. ### What? Return the scorer price unchanged for a neutral combined factor, reject non-finite configured factors, keep revised outputs strictly inside the probability range, and apply failed all-succeeds evidence at most once. Extend tests for exact endpoints, large factors, and infinite-factor rejection. ## Test Plan - ✅ `./tool/bazel test //submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/...`
Add the predictor package guide and clarify how it composes over the scorer without adding path evidence to the scorer contract.
Score takes the path-set snapshot. Evidence is a scorer wrapping a base; heuristic and composite ignore paths. Delete the sibling Predictor factory. # Conflicts: # submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/scorer.go # Please enter the commit message for your changes. Lines starting # with '#' will be kept; you may remove them yourself if you want to. # An empty message aborts the commit. # # interactive rebase in progress; onto 2de5499 # Last commands done (5 commands done): # pick ff043d9 # docs(speculation): document predictor extension # pick 0ff6ea7 # feat(speculation): fold predictor into Scorer # No commands remaining. # You are currently rebasing branch 'preetam/outcome-predictor' on '2de54998'. # # Changes to be committed: # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/generator/bestfirst/bestfirst.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/generator/bestfirst/bestfirst_test.go # deleted: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/BUILD.bazel # deleted: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/README.md # deleted: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/mock/BUILD.bazel # deleted: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/mock/predictor_mock.go # deleted: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/predictor.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/README.md # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/composite/scorer.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/composite/scorer_test.go # renamed: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/evidence/BUILD.bazel -> submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/evidence/BUILD.bazel # renamed: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/evidence/evidence.go -> submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/evidence/evidence.go # renamed: submitqueue/extension/speculation/predictor/evidence/evidence_test.go -> submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/evidence/evidence_test.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/fake/fake.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/fake/fake_test.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/heuristic/scorer.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/heuristic/scorer_test.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/mock/scorer_mock.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/scorer.go # modified: submitqueue/extension/speculation/speculator/standard/standard_test.go #
BatchStateLanding replaced Merging on main. Keep the YAML/factor name aligned with that state, and point the package at outcome-scorer.md.
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Summary
Why?
The RFC now has one public ranking interface. Keeping a Predictor package after that would leave a second factory the rest of the stack still had to delete.
What?
Widen
Scorer.Scorewith the path-set snapshot. Move evidence underscorer/evidenceas a Scorer wrapping a base. Heuristic, composite, and fake implement the same signature and ignorepaths(composite forwards them). Delete the Predictor package and its mocks. The evidence factor for the land-stage batch isLanding/ YAMLlanding.Test Plan
make mocks && make gazelle./tool/bazel test //submitqueue/extension/speculation/scorer/... //submitqueue/extension/speculation/generator/bestfirst:go_default_test //submitqueue/extension/speculation/speculator/standard:go_default_testStack